Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Soybean Oil: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face consolidation in the short - term [1]. - Soybean Meal: Due to large emotional fluctuations, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [2]. - Corn: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - Copper: After a sharp decline to release risks, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out at an appropriate time [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6]. - Steel: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: With sufficient supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level, but the upward space is limited [8]. - Iron Ore: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - Crude Oil: After a sharp decline in the WTI main contract after the holiday, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel of the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - Rubber: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12]. - PVC: Due to weak macro - sentiment, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14]. - Soda Ash: The 05 contract of soda ash continued to decline yesterday, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Market: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Market Analysis: During the current period, it is the sowing season of US soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is almost completed. The new South American soybean crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium - term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1]. Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,140 yuan/ton (+40), Tianjin 3,340 yuan/ton (+70), Rizhao 3,300 yuan/ton (+100), and Dongguan 3,050 yuan/ton (+40) [2]. - Market Analysis: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is nearly finished, and the export of US soybeans is still pessimistically expected. The arrival of imported soybeans is increasing, and the terminal breeding demand is average. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2]. Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia are 2,088 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,293 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture, bulk density 680 - 720) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton; and at Bayuquan Port (bulk density 680 - 730, 15% moisture) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Analysis: The US corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. The domestic farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the overall supply - demand pattern is improving. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution [3]. Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan/ton, down 4,540 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4]. - Market Analysis: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets. The domestic policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. The raw material shock is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (-1,400), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 79,100 yuan/ton (-1,400). The price difference between the two is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - Market Analysis: The forward price of lithium spodumene concentrate has been lowered. The weekly operating rate is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been continuously accumulating [5]. Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan/ton, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of rebar is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, and the contango structure has weakened. The cost center of steel is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the supply and demand are both strong [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons; and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - Market Analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is still sluggish, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 95.65, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 749 yuan/ton [9]. - Market Analysis: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the global port inventory has reached a new high since 2023. The demand is weak, and the market is worried about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [9]. Crude Oil - Market Analysis: The US has postponed the collection of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries for 90 days and reduced tariffs on some countries to 10%, while maintaining a 129% tariff on China. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the US PMI data in February contracted. The trade war and the Russia - Ukraine conflict have increased uncertainties, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely affected [10]. Rubber - Spot Information: The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber 16,350 yuan/ton [11]. - Market Analysis: The US "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is concerned about the import volume and inventory changes of rubber in China [12]. PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price difference between the two is 330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - Market Analysis: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased due to various factors. The futures price has fallen due to macro - tariff factors, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [13]. Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,462.38 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,525 yuan/ton, 1,575 yuan/ton, and 1,450 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged month - on - month [15]. - Market Analysis: The operating rate of soda ash has increased, and the production has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is average, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The global tariff disturbance still exists, and the short - term futures price is under pressure [15].
安粮期货生猪日报-20250410
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-04-10 06:22