申银万国期货首席点评：关税反转，全面反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the impact of Trump's tariff suspension announcement on various sectors including energy, precious metals, and stock indices. It suggests short - term trends and future concerns for each sector, with a focus on how the tariff policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals interact to influence prices and investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory I.当日主要新闻关注 - International News: The US government will suspend the collection of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% [6]. - Domestic News: The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries through strategic trust, development integration, stability maintenance, and increased exchanges [7]. - Industry News: In March, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.94 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 991,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45% [8]. II.外盘每日收益情况 - Various international market indices and commodities showed different trends. For example, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the European STOXX 50 fell 3.80%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.65% [8]. III.主要品种早盘评论 1) Financial - Stock Indices: Trump's 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries led to a surge in US stocks and A50 futures. Chinese stock indices rebounded strongly, with policies from multiple departments boosting market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [4][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.65%. It is recommended to go long while controlling risks, considering factors like the US tariff suspension and China's economic policies [12]. 2) Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's tariff suspension led to a late - session rebound in international oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - Methanol: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is bullish, considering factors such as production load and inventory [14]. - Rubber: The price of rubber continued to decline. The long - term trend is expected to be weak, affected by factors like tariffs and supply - demand [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins showed a weak and volatile trend. The short - term market will be affected by shocks, and attention should be paid to cost and demand [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend. The future trend depends on domestic demand [17]. - PTA: PTA prices are expected to remain weak due to insufficient cost support and demand [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to factors like inventory and demand [19]. 3) Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver rebounded. Gold is expected to remain strong, with future trends depending on multiple factors [3][20]. - Copper: The price of copper may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as tariffs and demand [21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices may also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on tariffs and other factors [22]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices may be weak and volatile in the short term, considering supply and demand [23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term, affected by multiple factors [24]. - Lithium Carbonate: In March, there was an oversupply of lithium carbonate. The price may decline further if production expectations are not revised [25][26]. 4) Black Metals - Iron Ore: The impact of tariffs on iron ore is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 progress [27]. - Steel: The impact of tariffs on steel is not direct. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 and demand [28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The valuation of coking coal and coke may be repaired upwards, with attention on upstream inventory digestion [29]. - Ferroalloys: The support for ferroalloys may strengthen, with attention on steel procurement and inventory [30]. 5) Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were weak at night. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as inventory and oil prices [32]. - Protein Meals: The price of far - month soybean meal has support, considering factors such as trade disputes and planting area [33]. 6) Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The short - term trend of the container shipping index to Europe is expected to be weak, with attention on shipping company capacity control and price increases [34].