Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bullish on bonds [3] Core Views - For stock indices, the US has postponed some tariffs and announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for some countries. The EU has voted to impose a 25% tariff counter - measure on the US, mainly targeting US steel and aluminum tariffs. China has imposed an additional 50% tariff on all imported goods from the US and included 12 US entities in the export control list. Although the offshore RMB has risen sharply, the tariff war competition is not over, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock indices may fluctuate [1]. - For treasury bonds, rumors about a press conference on Friday led to a surge in market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, causing treasury bond futures to rise sharply. However, the rumors were later refuted, and the futures prices dropped. Overall, the tariff game is still volatile, and the capital market volatility remains high. Before the risk premium is fully priced, the bond market will maintain high volatility and may show a two - way wide - range shock pattern [2]. Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 2.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.86%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 2.98%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 3.02% [4]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.16%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.09% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating weakly [5]. Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating strongly [7]. Strategy Suggestions - Stock indices are expected to oscillate [1] - Short - term bullish on treasury bonds [3] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3614.00 | 2.13 | 115307 | 150590 | | 2025/04/09 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2564.20 | 1.86 | 65219 | 58795 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5387.20 | 2.98 | 89534 | 77524 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5429.60 | 3.02 | 307215 | 184548 | | 2025/04/09 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | 0.09 | 94916 | 192698 | | 2025/04/09 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.43 | 0.12 | 71227 | 176560 | | 2025/04/09 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.33 | 0.16 | 150577 | 104799 | | 2025/04/09 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.68 | 0.09 | 57082 | 108388 | [9]
金融期货日报-20250410
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-10 06:28