事件点评：从上交所3号指引修订看城投债信用分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's No. 3 Guideline tightens the review of urban investment bond issuance, focusing on factors such as substantial transformation, business and asset structure optimization, and financial stability of urban investment entities. This will further promote the credit differentiation of urban investment bonds and force urban investment entities to accelerate the substantial transformation of market - oriented businesses. In 2025, the fiscal policy features a combination of debt - resolution dividends and a financing cold spell, leading to an accelerated stratification of the urban investment bond market. The issuance of urban investment bonds may be affected in the short - term, and the marginal changes in the issuance scale in the second quarter need continuous observation [4][5][6]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Content of the Guideline Revision - The revision refines financial indicators and information disclosure requirements, re - confirms the "335" indicator for urban investment judgment, requires full disclosure of "trade" business during urban investment transformation, and clarifies the responsibilities of intermediary institutions. This tightening of bond issuance review promotes urban investment credit differentiation and forces substantial transformation [4][5]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Logic in 2025 - The core of the fiscal policy is to develop while resolving debts and resolve debts while developing. There is an acceleration of implicit debt replacement and a contraction of incremental financing. The government uses 6 trillion yuan of special bonds to replace implicit debts and strictly controls new urban investment financing, with bond raising funds only for "borrowing new to repay old". The restart of land reserve special bonds provides opportunities for asset revitalization of urban investment entities. The 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond capital supplement policy for large - state - owned banks may lead to a preference for high - quality urban investment entities in credit allocation [6]. 3.3 Market Differentiation of Urban Investment Bonds - The "scissors gap" of credit spreads is widening, with the credit spreads of AAA urban investment bonds in regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai narrowing to within 40BP, while those of AA - rated urban investment bonds in Yunnan and Guizhou remaining high. The progress of market - oriented transformation is accelerating, with 405 market - oriented business entities as of April 9, 2025, accounting for 10.5% of the listed urban investment platforms [7]. 3.4 Impact on the Supply Side of Urban Investment Bonds - From March 31 to April 3, 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, with 81 bonds issued, a total issuance amount of 48.482 billion yuan, a 62.16% month - on - month decline, and a net financing of - 1.153 billion yuan. Four bonds were cancelled, with a total scale of 3.4 billion yuan. The follow - up review may benefit regions and enterprises with sufficient conditions for substantial transformation, and the marginal changes in the issuance scale in the second quarter need continuous observation [8]. 3.5 Key Provisions of the No. 3 Guideline Revision - Debt - related disclosure: Requirements for disclosing "financing channel restrictions", "remaining available credit limits", and "inventory and accounts receivable ratios" are added, aiming to assess financing channels, liquidity, and solvency [10]. - Business - related disclosure: For "335" indicators, "trade" business, and diversified business entities, full disclosure is required to evaluate business structure and transformation progress [4][10]. - Risk - related disclosure: Information on "mutual guarantees", "red - chip structures", "bribery", and "project revenue calculations" needs to be disclosed to assess potential risks [10].