风险管理二季度报告：在雷暴中生存，关税时代的避险

Report Title - "Surviving the Storm: Hedging in the Tariff Era - Risk Management Q2 Report" [1][2] Report Core View - The Fed's continuous suspension of interest rate cuts and slowdown of balance - sheet reduction, along with concerns about stagflation, have increased uncertainties in the economic outlook. Trump's "2.0" tariff policies have far - reaching impacts on the global trade system, the US economy, and China's economy, and also affect the prices of various commodities through different mechanisms [9][10][11] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3月FOMC会议及经济预测 - The Fed lowered the GDP growth forecast and raised the inflation forecast in the March 2025 FOMC meeting. The expected real GDP growth rate for the US in 2025 was lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the PCE growth rate was raised from 2.5% to 2.8%. The Fed also expressed concerns about stagflation [3][5][9] 后续展望 - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts for two consecutive months, maintaining the interest rate between 4.25% - 4.50%, and plans to cut rates twice by a total of 50BP in 2025. It has slowed down the balance - sheet reduction from $60 billion to $40 billion per month, which is a dovish signal. There are two potential paths for the US economy and monetary policy: if the contraction effect of demand and fiscal spending on inflation is stronger than the inflation - pushing effect of tariffs, the Fed may cut rates in June; otherwise, it may keep rates unchanged in the medium term [9] 特朗普2.0时代对等关税影响 - Global Trade System: It leads to the structural disintegration of the multilateral framework, the reconstruction of industrial chains, the formation of stagflation pressure, and the acceleration of the formation of geo - economic alliances [15][16] - US Economy: It exacerbates the risk of stagflation and delays the timing of interest rate cuts. In the short term, US exports may decline by 10% - 15% in Q2, and exports may turn negative in H2 [11][15][16] - China's Economy: Starting from Q2 2025, it will significantly drag down China's GDP and exports [11] 关税对大宗商品价格影响机制 - Cost Conduction: It leads to a direct price reconstruction and is affected by the accessibility of substitutes, geographical distribution, and the maturity of the trade network [24] - Substitution Effect: It reshapes the price system by changing the flow path of commodities, and the substitution of upstream raw materials is more difficult than that of downstream finished products [24] - Demand Expectation: It affects prices by changing the behavior patterns of market participants, with the stagflation trading logic dominating the market [24] 贵金属市场 - Gold: The "tariff risk premium" has been cleared, but there is still structural support. In the short term, pay attention to the technical support at $2900 per ounce, and in the long term, it needs a shift in monetary policy to break through $3150 per ounce [35] - Silver: It has been oversold due to the resonance of recession expectations and inventory pressure. The gold - silver ratio has soared to 102.73, breaking the upper limit of the past 10 - year fluctuation range [35] 有色金属市场 - Copper: It amplifies the macro - recession expectation, with cost support from supply disturbances and limited scrap copper imports. In the long term, it has demand support from grid investment, new energy, and AI [40] - Aluminum: There is a redistribution of industrial chain profits, and the supply - side is rigidly constrained by domestic production capacity ceilings and carbon - emission costs [40] 黑色金属市场 - The decline of the black - metal sector is relatively limited. Domestic "stable - growth" policies support the fundamentals, and the impact on export - oriented commodities is greater. Iron ore is more affected by sentiment than by actual impacts [48] 农产品市场 - The core contradiction has shifted from short - term cost shocks to medium - and long - term supply - chain resilience reconstruction. Brazil has gained the dominant position in global soybean pricing. There are opportunities for inter - period and inter - market arbitrage [52]