中原期货晨会纪要-20250410

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade tariff adjustment and the EU's counter - tariff measures against the US. The market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends. In the short term, the market may experience high - volatility fluctuations, and investors are advised to wait for the situation to become clearer [7][8][21][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - Stock Indexes: On April 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 40608.45, up 7.87% from the previous trading day; the Nasdaq Index was at 17124.97, up 12.163%; the S&P 500 was at 5456.90, up 9.515%; the Hang Seng Index was at 20264.49, up 0.68% [2] - Commodity Futures: Most commodity futures showed price changes. For example, COMEX gold rose 3.385% to $3099.80, and NYMEX crude oil rose 7.694% to $62.71 [2] - Domestic Futures: In the domestic market, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also had different price fluctuations. For instance, domestic gold rose 0.53% to 732 yuan/gram, and methanol rose 0.85% to 2372 yuan/ton [2][4] 2. Macro - News - Tariff Adjustment: The State Council Tariff Commission of China increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 84% starting from 12:01 on April 10. The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation for the US's tariff on EU steel and aluminum [7][8] - Policy Statements: China issued a white paper clarifying its stance on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it would firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The Chinese government emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, and stimulating the vitality of business entities [7][8] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is in a stalemate. Affected by the tariff increase on US - origin goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meal, and long - spread arbitrage can be considered [13] - Sugar: The supply side has improved rainfall in Brazil, and the domestic syrup import suspension provides support. The demand side has good domestic sugar sales, but the short - term inventory pressure remains. It is recommended to use 6000 yuan as the key dividing line for trading [13] - Pigs: The national pig price is stable. The market shows an oversupply and weak demand situation, and the spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [13] - Eggs: The spot price has rebounded due to post - holiday restocking and pre - May Day stocking, but the price increase space is limited due to supply pressure. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [15] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The market atmosphere is weakening. The 2505 contract of caustic soda may continue to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of last year's low [15] - Urea: The domestic urea market price is declining. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is slowing down. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15] 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the prices of copper and aluminum continue to decline. The inventory of copper has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum has increased. The market is worried about the impact of tariffs [15][17] - Alumina: The new production capacity of domestic alumina is being put into operation, and the supply is in surplus. The 2505 contract is expected to operate weakly [17] - Steel Products: The night trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have risen. The spot trading volume is fair, and the inventory reduction of steel products continues, but the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [17] 3.4 Option Finance - Stock Index: The A - share market has rebounded, and the US stock market has also risen significantly. The tariff war between China and the US may have a negative impact on the global financial system. Short - term investors can wait for the situation to become clearer, and some trading strategies such as short - term volatility strategies and combination arbitrage strategies can be considered [21][23][24] - Options: The trading volume and open interest of stock index options have different changes. Trend investors can hold long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can sell put options to short - sell volatility [25][26]