2025年3月价格数据点评：关税冲突下，国内通胀如何演绎？

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a narrowing decline compared to the previous month's 0.7%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from the previous month's 0.1%[2] - Food prices saw a year-on-year increase of -1.4%, improving from -3.3% in the previous month[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in March, compared to a decline of 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The number of industries experiencing a PPI decline increased to 21 out of 32 in March, up from 17 in the previous month[6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, worsening from the previous month's 0.1%[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current recovery momentum for domestic prices is weak, primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy effects in specific sectors[3] - The trade conflict with the U.S. is expected to exacerbate deflationary pressures on industrial products, impacting corporate profits and consumer confidence[9] - Policy reserves are sufficient, and further macroeconomic adjustments are anticipated to counter external shocks[10]