亚洲海关数据解读：纯苯全球物流大变局下，美金货源进厂库比例增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global logistics of pure benzene is experiencing significant changes, with an increasing proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies entering factories and warehouses [1] - After the return of maintenance of styrene plants in China from December 2024 to January 2025, China has once again become a net exporter of styrene, and this trend is expected to continue [29] Summary by Directory Japan's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from January to February 2025 - Japan's pure benzene exports exceeded 30,000 tons for two consecutive months in January and February 2025, with 74,400 tons in January (a record high) and 59,000 tons in February. The increase was due to the maintenance of multiple styrene plants in Japan, leading to a decline in pure benzene demand. Asian supplies, including those from Japan and South Korea, are expected to have a strong bearish impact on the US market in March [1] - Japan's styrene exports were at a five-year low in the same period due to numerous plant maintenance. In January, 31,300 tons were exported, and in February, 14,700 tons were exported. 65% of Japan's styrene exports from January to February went to South Korea. Japan's first export of styrene to Mexico reflects the current situation where the US has no trouble exporting styrene after a large number of European styrene plants shut down [3] South Korea's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from February to March 2025 - In March 2025, South Korea exported 299,777 tons of pure benzene, with 287,975 tons to China, 11,802 tons to Taiwan, 6,000 tons to Singapore, and 500 tons to Japan. South Korea's exports to the US and Taiwan were at historical lows in the same period. The significant reduction in South Korea's pure benzene trade volume to Taiwan was due to low downstream demand and a shift in procurement to Indian pure benzene [5] - In February 2025, South Korea exported 18,200 tons of styrene (a month-on-month decrease of 11,900 tons) and imported 61,600 tons (a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons), resulting in a net import of 43,400 tons. South Korea exported 14,400 tons of styrene to Turkey due to the maintenance of Middle Eastern plants and imported 10,000 tons of US styrene that was shipped at the end of December [8] - South Korea's pure benzene production decreased from 560,000 tons in January to 480,000 tons in February. With low production and high exports in February, South Korea's pure benzene inventory decreased by about 30,000 tons. Some refinery reforming units in South Korea are planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance from April to May, and production is expected to decline. However, the current expectations of production reduction and maintenance from April to May have basically been reflected in the Alpha price in May (rising from $18 to $22) [12] - South Korea's styrene production decreased from 150,000 tons in January to 140,000 tons in February. The inventory from January to February was at a historical low in the same period [14] China's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data from January to February 2025 - China's pure benzene imports remained at a high level from January to February 2025, with 470,000 tons imported in January and 518,000 tons in February. China's pure benzene imports have entered the "500,000-ton era." The rumored 50,000 tons of Saudi pure benzene shipment to China in late January was disproven by customs data (only 10,000 tons of Omani pure benzene were imported in February). The shutdown of Saudi styrene plants did not lead to a large-scale pure benzene logistics flow from the Middle East to China but instead redirected the logistics to India. In the import structure from January to February, the import volume of Indian supplies increased significantly, reaching a record high, with 38,600 tons imported in January and 24,000 tons in February. The pure benzene trade volume from Southeast Asia also increased significantly, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of styrene plants in Singapore and phenol plants in Thailand, as well as fewer pure benzene maintenance activities in Southeast Asia from January to February. Only Indonesia's exports of pure benzene to China decreased due to the shutdown of the aromatics complex of TPPI and Pertamina [19] - China's estimated pure benzene imports in March 2025 are around 530,000 tons. The proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies to trade warehouses decreased significantly in the first quarter of 2025. From January to March 2025, the proportion of US dollar-denominated pure benzene supplies in total imports is expected to be less than 25%. This reflects two issues: ① Traders with downstream pure benzene factory resources prefer to directly send goods to factories. Especially for pure benzene traders with long-term contracts, they are bound to incur losses this year, and storing goods in traders' warehouses will further magnify the losses. Therefore, actively matching downstream factories is a good way to reduce losses. ② The pure benzene directly arriving at Lianyungang Ruiheng and Satellite may be the marginal volume contributing to the decrease in the proportion of US dollar-denominated BZ arriving at the main ports in East China [27] - In January 2025, China imported 51,500 tons of styrene and exported 3,400 tons. In February, the import volume was 17,100 tons, and the export volume was 48,800 tons. After the 140,000-ton/year styrene plant of Hong Kong Petrochemical (now acquired by Guoen) restarted at the beginning of January after a long-term shutdown, China's South China region began to export styrene to Hong Kong in February. Due to the planned maintenance of many styrene plants in Japan in the first quarter, 3,000 tons of styrene were exported to Japan in January. Overall, after the return of maintenance of styrene plants in China from December 2024 to January 2025, China has once again become a net exporter of styrene, and this trend is expected to continue. It is estimated that China's styrene exports will further increase in March, with about 30,000 tons to South Korea and 20,000 - 30,000 tons to other countries (Taiwan, India) [29] India's Pure Benzene and Styrene Import and Export Data in 2024 - In 2024, India exported a total of 1.27 million tons of pure benzene, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to 2023. In terms of flow direction, the volume to the Middle East decreased significantly (-154,100 tons), while the volume to Northeast Asia increased significantly (+273,500 tons). Among them, 143,000 tons were exported to China (+82,000 tons) and 227,000 tons to Taiwan (+191,000 tons) [32] - In 2024, India imported a total of 1.12 million tons of styrene, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to 2023. Specifically, the styrene exports from Northeast Asia to India increased by 95,500 tons, and those from the Middle East to India increased by 76,100 tons. The styrene exports from Southeast Asia to India decreased by 110,000 tons [40]