恒力期货研究院|进出口数据点评_聚酯链 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】338 号 作者：周云 F03089066 Z0016657 联系人：杨皓宇 F03139287|发布日期：2025/06/23 5 月聚酯链进出口数据表现有所分化。进口方面，PX 进口相对稳定，5 月进口同比环比均小 幅增长，乙二醇进口环比回落，未来两月进口存减量预期。出口方面，5 月 PTA 出口大幅下降， 出口至土耳其数量单月下降 12 万吨。聚酯出口延续高景气，瓶片、短纤出口表现依旧亮眼。终 端纺织、服装单月出口表现分化，服装出口回暖，在 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 后，目前还存在一个多月的关税豁免期，需要持续关注关税谈判动态。 5 月 PTA 出口大幅下降，出口至土耳其数量单月下降 12 万吨。5 月 PTA 出口 26.5 万吨，同 比减少 39%，环比下降 32.3%，2025 年 1-5 月累计出口 160.2 万吨，同比减少 11.5%。从出口国 别看，1-5 月排在前五的分别是越南（27.6 万吨，17.3%）、阿曼（20.4 万吨，12.7%）、土耳其 （19.6 万吨，12.2%）、埃及（ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply from the US is expected to decrease in mid - late May as the tariff grace period for "in - transit goods" ends, while the Middle East will maintain high output. China's demand may decline due to high tariffs, and India's demand is expected to increase. The EIA inventory has risen, and the price shows a pattern of FEI with butane stronger than propane and May CP with propane stronger than butane. After May 13th, the US exports to China may significantly decrease, and the future situation in Japan and India needs further attention [10]. - **Methanol**: The supply, including domestic production, imports, and traditional downstream, is under pressure. The demand from downstream and olefins is weakening. The inventory situation shows that the support of low inventory for the basis is weakening. The price structure is weak, and the overall pattern of methanol is bearish. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the price above 2300 points in the long - term is under pressure [56]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of PP and PE has support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, but the demand is weakening as it enters the off - season. The inventory, cost, and price structure show certain characteristics. Affected by oil prices and tariff policies, the market sentiment is poor, and the polyolefin market is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [124]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG - **Supply** - **US**: The "in - transit goods" tariff exemption is about to end, and the output will gradually decrease in mid - late May, with the export focus shifting to other regions [10][14]. - **Middle East**: It is expected to maintain a strong output pattern to China and India in May [10][22]. - **Demand** - **Asia**: South Korea's demand is poor, and Japan will receive a large amount of US LPG in May [29]. - **China and India**: The arrival volume of US LPG will decrease in mid - late May, and India is turning to the US to purchase cheaper propane [35]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 2, the US propane and propylene inventory level has risen for the third consecutive week, and the production has slightly decreased but is still higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Price and Structure** - **Price**: As of May 8, FEI propane prices were stable, and butane prices were relatively strong. The May CP price of propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and butane decreased by 15 dollars/ton [10]. - **Structure**: The FEI - MOPJ spread widened, and the CP propylene - butane spread widened, reflecting China's attempt to find alternative supplies [10]. Methanol - **Supply** - **Domestic**: Short - term maintenance is rare, and the high - level supply pressure will be maintained. The weekly average output in late May is expected to slightly decrease to the range of 95 - 100 tons [56]. - **Import**: The arrival is increasing, and the pressure of import recovery will gradually appear in May. The overseas overall start - up has slightly declined [56]. - **Traditional**: The start - up of formaldehyde and acetic acid is at a high level, but the start - up of MTBE continues to decline [56]. - **Demand** - **Downstream**: The olefin load has decreased due to coal - chemical maintenance. As of May 8, the MTO start - up rate was 75.99% (- 2.08%) [56]. - **Inland**: The inland market has entered the off - season with low inventory [56]. - **Inventory** - **Inland**: As of May 7, the sample inventory of inland production enterprises was 30.39 tons (+ 2.06), and the pending orders were 23.78 tons (- 1.19) [56]. - **Port**: As of May 9, the total inventory was 61.9 tons (+ 0.1), and the negotiable inventory was 21.2 tons (- 1.2). The support of low inventory for the basis is weakening [56]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The near - end basis in East China is around 09 + 150/160, and the spread MA9 - 1 = - 63 ( + 2 compared with before the holiday) [56]. - **PP - 3MA**: As of May 9, 09MTO = 286 ( + 6 compared with before the holiday), and the spread trend is difficult to predict [56]. Polyolefins - **Supply**: The start - up rates of PP and PE are 80.2% (+ 3.9%) and 79.2% (- 1.95%) respectively as of May 8. There is support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, and attention should be paid to the PDH start - up and the impact of tariff policies on PE imports from the US [124]. - **Demand**: The start - up of PP downstream industries has seasonally declined, and the start - up of PE downstream industries has also weakened, with the industry entering the off - season [124]. - **Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of the two major oil companies was 79 tons (- 1.5), and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed after the holiday [124]. - **Cost**: The oil price performance is poor, and the support for polyolefin valuation is limited [124]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The PP9 - 1 = 81 yuan/ton ( + 23 compared with before the holiday), and L9 - 1 = 65 yuan/ton ( + 4 compared with before the holiday) [124]. - **PP - L**: As of May 9, 09PP - L = - 9 yuan/ton ( + 33 compared with before the holiday), and the spread is dominated by the difference in the fluctuation range of the two varieties [124].

恒力期货研究院|亚洲海关数据解读 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】338 号 作者：尹嵘 F3080813 Z0019213 联系人：赵嘉豪 F03126348 纯苯全球物流大变局下，美金货源进厂库比例增加 2025/4/2 一、日本纯苯、苯乙烯 1-2 月进出口数据 2025 年 1-2 月，日本纯苯出口量连续 2 个月大于 3 万吨。1 月总计出口 7.44 万吨（历史新高），2 月总 计出口 5.90 万吨。1-2 月日本纯苯出口增多主因是其境内多套苯乙烯装置检修导致纯苯需求下降。此外日本 1-2 月发往美国的纯苯量也不容忽视，叠加 2 月韩国出口至美国的 4 万吨纯苯，亚洲货源的预期到港在 3 月确 实对美国形成了很强的利空预期。 恒力期货研究院|亚洲海关数据解读 图 1 日本→中国台湾纯苯出口量 图 2 日本→韩国纯苯出口量 数据来源：日本海关 恒力期货研究院 数据来源：日本海关 恒力期货研究院 图 3 日本→中国纯苯出口量 图 4 日本→美国纯苯出口量 数据来源：日本海关 恒力期货研究院 数据来源：日本海关 恒力期货研究院 2025 年 1-2 月，日本苯乙烯装置检修较多，因此出口量处 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In January and February 2025, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PTA and polyester exports had a good start, with cumulative exports increasing by 14.9% and 16.9% year - on - year respectively. On the import side, PX imports shrank, with a 16.4% year - on - year decline in cumulative imports from January to February, while ethylene glycol imports exceeded expectations, with a 37.5% increase in cumulative imports. After the "rush to export" in the textile and clothing market ended, the export scale contracted [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Import - PX imports contracted, with cumulative imports from January to February down 16.4% year - on - year. In January, China imported 70.9 tons of PX, a single - month year - on - year decrease of 18.3%, and in February, it imported 68.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. From the perspective of import sources, Brunei surpassed Taiwan, China to become one of the top three import sources [6][9]. PTA Export - PTA exports in February increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, and cumulative exports in the first two months grew steadily. In January and February, PTA exports were 27.2 and 38.3 tons respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.3% in January and an increase of 74% in February. Cumulative exports from January to February 2025 were 65.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. The top five export destinations from January to February were Oman, Vietnam, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. The top five export provinces were Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Liaoning, and Guangdong [3]. EG Import - EG imports exceeded expectations and increased significantly, with cumulative imports from January to February up 37.5% year - on - year. In January and February, EG imports were 67.7 and 59.4 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.4% and 42.4%. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Canada were still the main import sources [6][15]. Polyester Export - Polyester exports continued to perform excellently, with all categories maintaining rapid growth. Cumulative polyester exports from January to February were 210.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9%. Among them, bottle chips, filaments, staple fibers, polyester films, and slices all had varying degrees of year - on - year growth. The top five export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Korea, and India. Exports were concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - After the "rush to export" ended, textile and clothing exports contracted. Cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were $42.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. In February, textile and clothing exports were poor, dragging down the cumulative export growth rate from January to February [3][36].