债市专题研究：关税交易重在应对

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear. The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may continue to disrupt the global financial market. The trade negotiations between China and the US have many variables, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs may just be the start of future frictions and negotiations [1][2]. - Tariff trading should focus on response rather than prediction. Given the low visibility of Trump's policies, it is more cost - effective to avoid unpredictable disturbances and focus on more certain trading directions. In the domestic bond market, the direction of the market is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher. In the equity market, large - cap stocks are more cost - effective than small - cap stocks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the US dollar liquidity crisis [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear - On the early morning of April 10, 2025, Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while maintaining a 10% benchmark tariff rate, which caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market. The game between market expectations and reality is the main driver of financial asset price changes. For example, the US stock market had significant fluctuations around tariff expectations in the days around April 9 [11]. - The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may not subside. There are still many variables in the trade negotiations between China and the US. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is only a start, and it is difficult to reach acceptable trade agreements within 90 days due to the wide - ranging impact of these tariffs [17][18]. 3.2 Tariff trading may focus on response rather than prediction - The low visibility of Trump's policies makes tariff prediction difficult, and the risk - return ratio of expected trading is not matched, with high trial - and - error costs. It is more advisable to focus on certain trading directions [19][20]. - In the domestic bond market, the central bank's control over the capital market has not fully relaxed, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate breaking the previous high has raised expectations of monetary policy easing. The market direction is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher [20][22]. - In the domestic equity market, the bottom is relatively firm. When the bond market is unclear, it is recommended to focus on large - cap stocks such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, as they can control risks while pursuing returns. Small - cap stocks like the CSI 1000 have high risks and high returns and are more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [26]. - The SOFR - OIS spread has shown a slight upward trend recently. The risk of basis trading caused by the significant adjustment of US Treasury yields may be the main reason. If Trump's tariff policy lasts longer than expected, it may test the US dollar liquidity [30][31].