银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250410

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton, Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report date: April 10, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,155 with a gain of 215, trading volume decreased by 6,488 to 17,175 lots, and open interest increased by 153 to 31,990 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12,820 with a gain of 235, trading volume decreased by 162,198 to 389,624 lots, and open interest decreased by 48,399 to 342,591 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 12,985 with a gain of 225, trading volume decreased by 81,777 to 344,621 lots, and open interest increased by 25,241 to 374,237 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 18,845 with a gain of 15, trading volume decreased by 1 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 7 lots [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,915 with a gain of 275, trading volume decreased by 3,697 to 3,766 lots, and open interest decreased by 381 to 1,558 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 18,935 with a gain of 290, trading volume increased by 304 to 608 lots, and open interest increased by 290 to 1,074 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,464 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A price was 77.95 cents/pound, up 2.70 cents/pound [3] - FC Index:M: arrival price was 76.56 cents/pound, down 0.56 cents/pound [3] - Polyester staple fiber price was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Viscose staple fiber price was 13,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] Spread - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 335, down 20; 5 - 9 spread was - 165, up 10; 9 - 1 spread was - 170, up 10 [3] - Yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 70, down 260; 5 - 9 spread was - 20, down 15; 9 - 1 spread was 90, up 275 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,690, down 200; CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,095, up 40; CY09 - CF09 spread was 5,950, up 65 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 769, down 61; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 48, down 83; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,515, down 450 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of tariff measures, during which the reciprocal tariff was significantly reduced to 10% [6] - China adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 34% to 84% starting from April 10, 2025, at 12:01 [6][8] - As of the week ending April 6, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 55,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [6] - India's cumulative cotton market volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.2175 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [6] - As of the week ending April 6, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 66.77°F, 3.05°F higher than the same period last year [7] - The average rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas was 0.88 inches, 0.44 inches higher than the same period last year [7] Trading Logic - After the US postponed the additional tariffs on other countries, some of the previous market bearish factors were released, but market uncertainty increased, so short - term waiting and seeing was recommended [8][9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term due to increased market uncertainty [9] - Arbitrage: Consider shorting 09 and going long 01 [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Under the influence of macro factors, the cotton yarn market trading was weak, and the yarn price continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 300 - 500 yuan/ton [11] - After China raised tariffs on the US and the US adjusted its tariff policy, the futures and stock markets may rebound, and the all - cotton grey fabric trading may recover [11] Group 4: Options - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 238, with a gain of 17.2%, and the implied volatility was 13.1% [13] - The closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 279, with a loss of 36.7%, and the implied volatility was 14.9% [13] - The closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 170, with a loss of 44.1%, and the implied volatility was 15.7% [13] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4662, with a slight increase compared to the previous day [13] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.5543, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8209. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased, indicating a significant bearish sentiment in the market [14] - Option strategy: Wait and see [15] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][23][25][29]