华金期货螺纹周报-20250410

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Affected by tariff factors, the commodity market has significantly declined, and steel prices have fluctuated at a low level this week. Steel mill production is expected to remain high, while the demand side remains weak. Apparent demand is expected to reach a plateau, with a low possibility of a significant and continuous rebound. Given the changing market environment, it is recommended to short sell rebar at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Section Section 1: Rebar Supply - Mysteel's weekly production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, with electric furnace production rising by 3.13 tons and blast furnace production increasing by 0.59 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that steel production is at a high level [10]. - Steel mill production is currently stable, and with good profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3]. Section 2: Rebar Demand - Apparent demand has entered a stable phase, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year. Overall, it is significantly weaker than the same period last year. Cement clinker capacity utilization remained stable this week, and Mysteel's daily transactions were generally weak, consistent with the performance of apparent demand [15]. Section 3: Rebar Inventory - Rebar total inventory continued to decline slightly this week. Hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable. Rebar mill inventory increased by 7.54 tons to around 214.66 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.10 tons, and total inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 797.76 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises has declined from a high level [21]. Section 4: Rebar Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,880 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is around 2,930 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,924 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on April 9th, which was 2,930 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 6 yuan/ton [24]. Section 5: Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian decreased from 3,230 yuan to 3,170 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan. The price of Tangshan Qian'an billet decreased from 3,050 yuan to 2,970 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [27]. Section 6: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore fluctuated widely. Due to the contract - switching factor, the main contract's rebar - to - iron ore ratio strengthened slightly. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and the ferrous metal market is expected to remain under pressure [33]. Section 7: Statistical Bureau - Related Data - In January - February, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.8% and 29.6% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with January - December, while the decline in new housing construction area widened by 6.6 percentage points [37].