铜早报：情绪短暂转强，市场可能短期回暖-20250410

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Copper is rated as a short - term correction and long - term bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market sentiment has briefly strengthened, and the market may recover in the short term. Copper prices may turn stronger in the short term, but there is still great uncertainty in the market due to the frequency of Trump's policy changes. The core contradiction lies in the macro - attribute, and the copper price may decline in the short term [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents 1. Market Conditions - Daily changes: Shanghai copper closed at 72,130 yuan/ton (-1.68%), London copper at $8,897/ton (+2.8%), New York copper at $4.4360/pound (+8.23%), Shanghai electrolytic copper premium at 95 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) at -$55/ton. Social inventory is 298,700 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 97,400 tons, which is in the destocking range [3] 2. News - China and the EU announced tariffs on US - originated goods, and then Trump suspended full - scale reciprocal tariffs and initiated a 90 - day trade negotiation (excluding China). The US Treasury bond crashed, and the Fed may adjust its monetary policy, which led to a sharp rise in US stocks [3] 3. Trading Logic - Supply reduction expectation persists, but the current supply of refined copper is still relatively high. The copper tariff issue has cooled down, and the spread arbitrage logic has weakened. Consumption is in a state of strong expectation and strong reality, with the consumption peak season effect emerging. The core contradiction is in the macro - attribute, and the copper price may decline in the short term [4] 4. Strategy Suggestion - Industrial customers should stock up at low prices; speculators should wait and see [5]