山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war has been partially realized, and the "de - dollarization" process has accelerated. The US economy shows more signs of weakness, but Fed officials are cautious about interest rate cuts [2]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's reciprocal tariffs have been implemented, and there is still a possibility of escalation between China and the US. The VIX index has risen from a low level. The trade war has prompted central banks around the world to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries and increase their gold reserves [2]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that most participants believe inflation may be more persistent. The US labor market remains resilient, with non - farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations. The US inflation also remains resilient, with the core PCE price index in February rising 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in June, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 75 basis points. The US dollar index has declined again, and the US Treasury yield has rebounded significantly [2]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has fluctuated downward, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Today, precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 3.21%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 3.44%. International and domestic gold prices showed different changes, with Comex gold rising 3.39% from the previous day, and Shanghai gold rising 2.24% [2][3]. - Core Logic: Short - term Trump trade war risk realization, "de - dollarization" acceleration, US economic weakness, and Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - Attributes Analysis: Safe - haven attribute is affected by trade war and VIX index; monetary attribute is related to inflation, labor market, and Fed's interest rate expectations; commodity attribute is influenced by CRB index and RMB exchange rate [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - Fund and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have recently reduced their positions. The visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss and take - profit [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 67743.25 billion US dollars, a decrease of 169.14 billion US dollars from the previous period [9]. - Inflation and Yield: Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.46, up 0.10 (4.24%) from the previous day and 0.21 (9.33%) from the previous week. CPI and core CPI have shown certain changes [9][11]. - Exchange Rate and Spread: The US dollar index is 102.95, down 0.01 (- 0.01%) from the previous day and 0.81 (- 0.78%) from the previous week. Various bond spreads have also changed [9][11]. - Other Data: Data on M2, GDP, employment, real estate, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have shown different trends [9][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].