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安琪酵母(600298):24年毛利率承压,25年业绩弹性可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 44.74 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of over 16.73 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 10% [4]. - The company anticipates profit elasticity in 2025 due to a decline in molasses costs and a decrease in shipping fees, which are expected to offset previous cost pressures [4][3]. - The domestic business is expected to maintain resilience, while overseas business continues to grow, particularly in developing countries [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.2 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.32 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 4.1% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.5%, impacted by increased shipping costs and depreciation, despite a drop in molasses prices [3]. Market Performance - The company's revenue from yeast products, sugar, packaging, and other segments in 2024 was 10.85 billion RMB, 1.27 billion RMB, 410 million RMB, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, showing varied growth rates across segments [2]. - Domestic revenue reached 9.42 billion RMB, up 7.5% year-on-year, while international revenue grew by 19.4% to 5.71 billion RMB [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see improved performance in 2025, with a projected EPS of 1.79 RMB, reflecting a 17.35% increase from 2024 [4][6]. - The anticipated target price of 44.74 RMB corresponds to a PE ratio of 25x for 2025, based on comparable company analysis [4][12].