万孚生物（300482）：国际部领衔增长，毛利率稳中有升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.07 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 306.5 million RMB and 56.2 million RMB in 2024, representing year-over-year growth of 10.9% and 15.2%, respectively, although these figures fell short of market expectations [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 64.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to an optimized product revenue structure [1]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 362 million RMB, reflecting a 10.1% year-over-year increase, indicating a positive cash flow trend [1]. Revenue Growth Projections - The international department is expected to see a revenue increase of approximately 30% in 2024, driven by the expansion of immunofluorescence and single-use luminescence businesses [2]. - Domestic business is projected to grow by about 10% in 2024, supported by deeper market penetration in emergency departments and strategic engagement with higher-tier hospitals [2]. - The U.S. subsidiary is anticipated to experience a slight revenue decline in 2024 due to intensified competition in the North American toxicology testing market, but is expected to recover in 2025 with new product contributions [2]. Business Segment Performance - The infectious disease testing segment is projected to generate 1.042 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 9.5%, driven by increasing demand for routine testing [3]. - The chronic disease testing segment is expected to achieve 1.369 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, reflecting a robust year-over-year growth of 22.4%, bolstered by steady promotion of immunofluorescence products [3]. - The toxicology and prenatal testing segments are forecasted to generate revenues of 286 million RMB and 294 million RMB, respectively, with the latter expected to grow by 10% year-over-year [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's revenue growth and sales expense rate forecasts, projecting net profits of 652 million RMB, 752 million RMB, and 867 million RMB for 2025-2027, with significant downward adjustments of 23.3% and 30.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic POCT industry, with a diverse product range and ongoing commercialization efforts, warranting a 20x PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 27.07 RMB [4].