关税冲突不确定性高，铜价波动剧烈

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the financial attribute of copper is prominent, and its price is highly correlated with trade conflicts. The unexpected US tariff and strong fundamentals have pushed up the copper price. Investors are advised to operate with caution [1]. - In the long - term, the fundamentals of copper remain resilient, with potential supply reduction and increasing demand [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and closed higher today. The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US initially caused market panic, but the suspension of tariffs on some trading partners for 90 days reversed the stock market trend. Overnight, the London copper price rose, and the Shanghai copper price also increased in the early morning and closed higher after oscillation. Currently, the macro - level noise is high, and the market's trading on tariff policies and economic uncertainties affects the copper market. However, the copper fundamentals are still strong in the long - run [1]. - On the supply side, as of April 3, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 26.26 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.65 cents per pound, showing a further weakening. There are rumors that top Chinese copper smelters propose a 5% - 10% production cut in Q2 2025. In March, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 6.39 million tons month - on - month (a rise of 6.04%) and 12.27% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to March increased by 27.45 million tons year - on - year (a rise of 9.4%) [1]. - On the demand side, the decline in copper price has boosted the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. In March 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 71.82%, up 4.17 percentage points month - on - month and 11.38 percentage points year - on - year [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, closing at 75,300 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top 20 was 1,110,435 lots, an increase of 33,845 lots; the number of short positions was 1,130,619 lots, a decrease of 12,159 lots [3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 50 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On April 9, 2025, the LME official price was 8,585 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 46 dollars per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of April 3, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 26.26 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.65 cents per pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 89,500 tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons from the previous period. As of April 7, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 123,200 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 211,900 tons, a slight decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 111,700 short tons, an increase of 4,518 short tons from the previous period [8].