创元期货日报-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares withstood extreme pressure from the US tariff hikes. The market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. The market's pessimistic expectations were eased by the injection of liquidity into individual stocks by the national team [2][5]. - The US made concessions due to the sharp decline in US Treasury bonds. The game between Trump and the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was more patient. The subsequent trade and technology wars should not be overly pessimistic. With most tariff - related cards already played, the market is waiting for the government's economic - stabilizing measures [2][9]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector that has fallen significantly in the early stage. Considering the national team's approach, the index will face short - term divergence. It is suggested to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on $232 billion worth of US imported products. After China's counter - measures, the EU also took counter - actions. Dollar - related assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and US stocks experienced panic selling. Then Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions and increased tariffs on China to 125%. Overnight, the overseas market rose sharply, with the US dollar index falling first and then rising, the US Treasury bond yield falling, gold rising, and the three major US stock index futures soaring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.87%, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.16%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 4.5%. The offshore RMB exchange rate returned to 7.35. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers believed the US economy faced risks of both rising inflation and slowing growth, and it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [1][4]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the US continued to impose a 50% tariff on China, A - shares withstood the pressure on Wednesday. The national team's support expanded from the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, injecting liquidity into individual stocks. Military industry, commerce and retail, real estate, computer, and social services sectors led the gains, while only the banking and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. A total of 4,526 stocks rose and 777 stocks fell in the whole market [2][5]. 3.1.3 Important Information - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for most economies for negotiation. During the negotiation period, a 10% global tariff would still be imposed, and tariffs on industries such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum were not included in the suspension [6][7]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on 210 billion euros worth of US goods, including soybeans, to counter US steel and aluminum tariffs. US officials believed that the EU would postpone the planned retaliatory measures [7]. - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed the economy faced risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Morgan Stanley predicted that the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut would be in September, and Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession to 45% [7]. - China firmly countered with a "combination punch", raising the tariff rate on all imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%. The white paper "China's Position on Certain Issues in China - US Economic and Trade Relations" was released. The State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to introduce new incremental policies according to the situation. The Ministry of Commerce included 6 US companies in the unreliable entity list and 12 US entities in export control [7][8]. 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The US made concessions due to the US Treasury bond slump. A - shares withstood the pressure with the help of the national team, and the liquidity problem of individual stocks was alleviated. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector. The index will face short - term divergence, and it is advisable to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various futures contracts including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as relevant indicators such as basis, spread, and trading volume and open interest changes [11][12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various spot market indices and sectors, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation levels of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and sector indices [30]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors [31][32][34]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, reflecting the market's liquidity situation [49].