宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年4月10日）-20250410

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and weak" respectively, with a sideways trading strategy. The coking coal market has insufficient bullish drivers and operates at a low level. For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are also "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and weak" respectively, with a sideways trading strategy. The bearish sentiment dominates, and coke shows a weak sideways movement [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price Trend and Logic: Coking coal futures remain in a downward trend, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and the daily K - line suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose, with high supply and high imports continuing. Demand improvement in real estate and infrastructure takes time, and export demand faces trade policy risks. The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US in early April and a 50% tariff increase on Chinese goods have limited direct impact on coking coal but may affect the overall atmosphere of black commodities. The black metal demand improves in the "Golden March and Silver April", but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of coking coal are bearish, and the futures main contract operates weakly [5] Coke (J) - Price Trend and Logic: Trade pressure from the US, Vietnam, etc., has led to concerns about black metal demand. The sharp decline in finished product futures prices has triggered negative feedback expectations, driving coke to operate weakly. Domestic coking plants initiated the first price increase around the Tomb - sweeping Festival, starting from April 9. The cost and demand sides of coke still have medium - and long - term concerns. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal, the raw material, is loose, providing insufficient cost support. The US has increased tariffs, with an 84% import tariff on Chinese goods this time, bringing export risks. The short - term improvement in coke fundamentals and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined, and the new tariff policy deepens concerns about black commodity demand, so the coke main contract is expected to operate weakly in the near future [7]