China Post Securities·2025-04-10 11:14Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry in China is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with the integration of automation helping logistics companies reduce costs and improve efficiency. In 2024, the express business volume is projected to reach 174.5 billion pieces, with revenue of 1.4 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively. By 2025, the business volume is expected to reach 190 billion pieces, with revenue of 1.5 trillion yuan, maintaining an approximate growth rate of 8% [2][11] - The maturity of autonomous driving and drone technology is advancing. Domestic L4-level autonomous delivery vehicles are gradually maturing, with major e-commerce players and startups launching vehicles capable of L4-level autonomous driving. Drone technology, represented by eVTOL, is also maturing, with applications from companies like SF Express and Meituan already taking shape [2][3][37] - Policy support for unmanned logistics is increasing, with the aim of reducing logistics costs. The "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Logistics Costs" aims to lower the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP to around 13.5% by 2027. Various policies are encouraging the development of new logistics models that integrate automation and platform economies [2][43][46] Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Logistics Driving Industry Efficiency - The express delivery industry in China is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with significant cost reductions through automation. The market size is projected to reach 275.7 billion USD by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2023 to 2028 [11][14] - The cost of autonomous delivery vehicles has significantly decreased, with hardware costs dropping from 300,000-500,000 yuan in 2021 to around 50,000 yuan currently. These vehicles are being deployed in over 20 provinces, completing over 5 million kilometers of operation [3][14] - Drones are primarily used for branch and last-mile logistics, with small drones already in significant use. By the end of 2024, Fengyi drones have completed over 1.1 million flights, transporting over 6.6 million packages [3][60] 2. Current Status of Unmanned Logistics in the U.S. - The U.S. express delivery market is experiencing a slowdown, with a package volume of 21.7 billion in 2023 and a slight revenue decline to 197.9 billion USD. The market is dominated by a few major players, with UPS holding a 35% market share [2][71][74] - Major logistics companies in the U.S. are attempting to develop their own unmanned delivery solutions, with various startups also participating in the market. Companies like Zoox and Waymo are leading in autonomous truck manufacturing, while Amazon's Prime Air is focused on drone delivery [2][82][86]