China Post Securities·2025-04-10 12:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry in China is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with the integration of automation helping logistics companies reduce costs and improve efficiency. In 2024, the express business volume is projected to reach 174.5 billion pieces, with revenue of 1.4 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively. By 2025, the business volume is expected to reach 190 billion pieces, with revenue of 1.5 trillion yuan, maintaining an approximate growth rate of 8% [2][11] - The maturity of autonomous driving and drone technology is advancing. Domestic L4-level autonomous delivery vehicles are gradually maturing, with major e-commerce players and startups launching vehicles capable of L4-level autonomous driving. Drone technology, represented by eVTOL, is also maturing, with applications from companies like SF Express and Meituan already taking shape [2][3][37] - Policy support for unmanned logistics is increasing, with the aim of reducing logistics costs. The "Effective Action Plan to Reduce Logistics Costs" aims to lower the ratio of total logistics costs to GDP to around 13.5% by 2027. Various policies are encouraging the development of new logistics models that integrate automation and digitalization [2][43][46] Summary by Sections Section 1: Unmanned Logistics Boosting Industry Efficiency - The express delivery industry in China is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with significant cost reductions through automation [2][11] - The supply side is seeing advancements in autonomous driving and drone technology, which are crucial for the application of unmanned logistics [2][37] - Policy initiatives are increasingly supporting unmanned logistics, with a focus on reducing overall logistics costs [2][43] Section 2: Current Status of Unmanned Logistics in the U.S. - The U.S. express delivery market is experiencing a slowdown, with market share concentrated among a few major players [66][71] - Major logistics companies in the U.S. are attempting to develop their own unmanned delivery solutions, while tech startups are actively participating in this space [82][86] - Regulatory challenges and high supply chain costs are hindering the development of unmanned logistics in the U.S. [66][87]