软商品日报-20250410

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ Indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆★ Suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ Representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] - Apple: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Natural Rubber: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆☆ Implying a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ Indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as tariff policies, weather, and raw material supply. It is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, and for apples, it is advised to hold existing long positions or wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded significantly due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days and reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Domestic cotton spot trading declined. Spinning mills' inventory of pure cotton yarn is not high, and actual transactions are scarce. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is greatly affected by tariffs, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to correct. Crude oil's continuous decline is negative for US sugar. The trading focus of US sugar will shift to Brazil's sugar supply in the medium - and long - term. The high sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is negative for sugar. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates. The trading focus will shift to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly, but the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The northwest region is gradually entering the flowering period, and there is a cooling process this weekend, increasing weather risks. However, it is expected that the impact on apple blossoms will be small. It is recommended to hold existing long positions or wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days, RU and NRBR both rose sharply. The global natural rubber supply is in an increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the inventory pressure of finished products remains. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased. The rubber market is driven by policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to take advantage of the rebound and hold cross - variety positions [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp rebounded significantly. The import from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased slightly. The import inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the demand is average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. Although the ex - factory price has decreased, the arrival volume in April is still expected to be high. The port delivery volume increased slightly, but the total volume is still low, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected. The port log inventory decreased, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]