近端供应承压，粕类继续回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - end supply of meal products is under pressure, and the prices of meal products continue to correct. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean meal price may face a certain downward pressure. The rapeseed meal price is expected to be affected and run at a low price difference. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited. It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach for trading strategies [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded due to the postponement of tariff hikes. The domestic soybean meal futures declined as the import cost of Brazilian soybeans continued to fall, and the near - end export pressure in Brazil increased. The performance of soybean meal futures was stronger than that of rapeseed meal futures. The near - month spread of soybean meal fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month spread of rapeseed meal declined due to concerns about increased supply in the future [2] Fundamental Analysis International Market - The near - end pressure in the international soybean market is relatively limited. The US soybean exports are in good condition, and although the recent crushing performance is average, the overall demand is good. Brazil's sales enthusiasm has increased due to the rise in domestic soybean prices and exchange - rate changes, and the supply has improved. The export inspection data support the US soybean export demand, and Brazil's crushing data also provide obvious support. In the long - term, the rebound in US soybean prices is beneficial to the improvement of planting profits, but the slow progress of new - crop sales still requires attention [3] Domestic Market - The domestic market is currently in a state of tight supply and demand, with low soybean arrivals and crushing volumes, but the downstream demand is also average. The spot market has shown a phased improvement. As the subsequent soybean arrivals increase and the downstream may have a certain inventory - building motivation, the market is expected to remain stable. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.0301 million tons, the operating rate was 28.96%, the soybean inventory was 2.9043 million tons, an increase of 17.15% from last week and a decrease of 12.05% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 579,100 tons, a decrease of 22.58% from last week and an increase of 93.03% year - on - year. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened significantly recently, and the inventory - reduction speed of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has gradually slowed down. It is expected that rapeseed meal will operate weakly and remain stable in the near - end [4][5] Macro - environment - Trump postponed the tariff hikes on other countries, but the subsequent negotiations will continue. At the same time, China and the US imposed additional tariffs on each other again. The EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods that were previously subject to US tariffs, and the soybean tariff will be implemented from December 1 [5] Logical Analysis - The rebound of the real has led to a further decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, weakening the upward momentum of soybean meal. Although the loss of US soybean planting profits may lead to a decrease in the planting area in the long - term, the recent rebound in US soybean prices and the long time until the next planting season make it difficult to support a significant rise in the soybean futures. Therefore, soybean meal may face a certain downward pressure, and the rapeseed meal futures are also expected to be affected. The monthly spread of soybean meal lacks driving factors and is expected to fluctuate, while the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Buy call options (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7]