豆油二季度观点：美国生物燃料政策预期转向下的变局-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the domestic futures market's soybean oil prices are expected to remain weak initially and then strengthen in the second quarter. The price of US soybean oil may rise due to biofuel policies, which could drive up the domestic palm oil price, and the domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is expected to remain inverted until the second half of Q2 [4]. - The international soybean oil market's raw material supply in Q2 and Q3 mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The shift in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs. The upward trend in US soybean oil's domestic demand will offset the impact of the decline in US soybean exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. - In the domestic market, with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans starting in April, the domestic soybean supply will be sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The soybean oil supply will remain abundant even after the increase in soybean crushing, and the demand has not been significantly boosted. The soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In Q1, the domestic and international soybean oil markets showed different trends. Domestically, soybean oil was relatively firm compared to palm oil at the beginning but was the weakest among the three major oils later due to the accelerated Brazilian soybean harvest and high expected arrivals in Q2. Internationally, US soybean oil prices were weak initially due to pessimistic biofuel policy expectations and then rebounded due to policy changes [7]. 3.2国际市场 (International Market) 3.2.1大豆产量 (Soybean Production) - As of March 29, Brazil's soybean harvest progress reached 81.4%, better than the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 production is expected to be 167 million tons, a 13.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - The USDA's March planting intention report shows that US farmers plan to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025/26, less than in 2024. The Q1 2025 soybean inventory in the US is at the highest level in the past three years [16]. 3.2.2大豆压榨 (Soybean Crushing) - Due to the expiration of the BTC biodiesel tax credit subsidy and the non - implementation of the new 45Z subsidy, US biodiesel production declined, and the soybean oil price dropped, leading to a low soybean crushing profit in Q1 [23]. 3.2.3豆油出口 (Soybean Oil Exports) - Due to the long - term inversion of the international soybean - palm oil price spread, the exports of North and South American soybean oil improved significantly. As of March 27, US soybean oil exports reached 660,000 tons this year, compared with only 35,000 tons in the same period last year. Argentina's soybean oil exports have also been at a high level since Q4 last year, mainly exported to India [31]. 3.2.4生柴 (Biodiesel) - After Trump took office, the RINs price dropped, and biodiesel producers faced losses. However, with the policy change, the RINs price rose, and biodiesel production became profitable, stabilizing the soybean oil price [36]. - Due to pessimistic policy expectations and low blending profits, the use of soybean oil in biodiesel decreased, and its proportion was lower than other raw materials for the first time. The production of BD and RD in January 2025 also decreased significantly [40]. - The market expects the EPA to raise the 2026 biodiesel RVO obligation to 55 - 575 million gallons, creating a raw material demand increase of about 8 - 9 million tons. However, US tariff policies will lead to a raw material shortage of about 6 million tons [43]. 3.2.5生物柴油 (Biodiesel) - The 45Z subsidy model mainly targets domestic producers. In extreme cases, about 2 - 3 million tons of imported canola oil and about 2 - 3 million tons of UCO may be replaced. The new policy and tariffs will create a raw material shortage of 9 - 10 million tons. If all are replaced by soybean oil, an additional 50 million tons of soybean crushing is needed, but the US soybean crushing capacity is insufficient [47]. 3.3国内市场 (Domestic Market) 3.3.1近端到港偏低，远月到港充足 (Low Immediate Arrivals, Sufficient Distant - Month Arrivals) - Due to low arrivals in Q1, the domestic soybean inventory has declined and is approaching a turning point. With the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the arrivals from April to May are expected to be earlier and larger, and the supply from Q2 to Q3 is expected to be sufficient [50]. 3.3.2逐步去库，但供应仍宽松 (Gradual De - stocking, but Supply Remains Loose) - The three major domestic oils are in the process of de - stocking. Palm oil inventory is relatively tight, rapeseed oil is relatively loose, and soybean oil inventory is around the historical average. With the arrival of a large number of soybeans and the increase in the crushing rate, soybean oil inventory is expected to start increasing at the end of April, but the process may be slow [53]. 3.3.3对棕榈油替代明显，但消费总量一般 (Obvious Substitution for Palm Oil, but General Consumption Volume) - Soybean oil has significantly substituted palm oil, but due to limited population growth and domestic consumption downgrade, the total vegetable oil consumption has little increase. In Q2, soybean oil consumption is expected to improve, and the substitution for palm oil in the catering sector will be more obvious, with the apparent demand increasing by about 100,000 - 200,000 tons per month compared to last year [57]. 3.4二季度观点汇总 (Summary of Second - Quarter Views) 3.4.1国际市场 (International Market) - Raw material side: In Q2 and Q3, the supply mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The change in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs [59]. - Demand side: The export demand for US soybean oil will be affected, but the increase in domestic demand due to policy changes will offset the impact of the decline in exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. 3.4.2国内市场 (Domestic Market) - Raw material side: Starting from April, the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans will make the domestic soybean supply sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The supply shortage caused by US soybeans may appear after the supply center shifts from Brazil to the US, which will be more obvious in the 01 contract [59]. - Demand side: The domestic soybean oil inventory is not tight, and the supply will remain abundant after the increase in soybean crushing. The demand has not been significantly boosted, and the soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3.4.3策略建议 (Strategy Recommendations) - It is expected that the price spread of the 09 contract of soybean - palm oil will remain inverted in the second quarter and may approach parity in the third quarter. It is recommended to implement strategies to widen the spread of the 09 and 01 contracts of soybean - palm oil and the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. - For single - side trading, pay attention to the support of palm oil prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to short at high prices, and long positions in the 01 contract can be considered at the end of the second quarter.