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银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250410
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-04-10 13:57

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current egg in - production inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, with the supply side being relatively loose. The demand side is in the off - season, with general overall demand and a dominant market wait - and - see sentiment. However, recent macro risks have increased, and there is an expected rise in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3747, up 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3117, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, down 18. For spreads, 01 - 05 was 630, up 15; 05 - 09 was - 761, up 5; 09 - 01 was 131, down 20. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 05 egg/bean粕 changed slightly [3]. - Spot Market: The average price in the main production areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The average price of culled chickens was 4.92 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Egg Price Trends: The national mainstream egg prices continued to show a mixed trend of rises and stability. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui were stable [6]. - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: In March, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.318 billion, an increase of 0.012 billion from the previous month and a 6.8% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the inventory from March to June 2025 will be approximately 1.321 billion, 1.324 billion, 1.329 billion, and 1.337 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken Culling: From April 4th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 1889, a 5.4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age on April 3rd was 537 days, 1 day less than the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of April 3rd, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 9117 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week [7]. - Inventory: As of April 3rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.01 days, and in the circulation link was 1.28 days, a decrease of 0.06 days [7]. - Profit: As of April 3rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.05 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous week. On April 4th, the expected profit per laying hen was 14.67 yuan/feather, a decrease of 4.56 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.3 Trading Logic The egg market has a relatively loose supply due to a large year - on - year increase in in - production inventory. The demand is in the off - season and general. With increasing macro risks and expected rising soybean meal prices, it is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. - Options Trading: Wait and see [11].