银河期货苹果日报-20250410

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily issued on April 10, 2024, by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D [2] Group 2: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 101.02, down 0.08 from the previous workday; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.49, down 0.05 [3] - Futures prices: AP01 was 7577, up 107; AP05 was 7900, up 124; AP10 was 7660, up 132 [3] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 was 523, down 107; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 was 200, down 124; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 was 440.0, down 132 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of March 19, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 5.0061 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,500 tons, and the shipment speed decreased slightly [4] - In February 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.71% and a year - on - year increase of 54.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2025 was 0.38 million tons. In February 2024, the export volume was about 6.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February 2025 was about 15.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [7] - The apple market in the origin remained stable. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions were good, with high purchasing enthusiasm from merchants for high - quality goods. The market was generally good, with slightly increased arrivals and fast sales [7] - The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.5 yuan per catty, the same as last week [8] - Apple prices in Qixia, Shandong were stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade apples, fruit farmers' film - red apples were 3.2 - 3.3 yuan per catty, striped apples were 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, cold - storage apple prices were stable, and the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty [9] Trading Logic - The probability of a late spring cold has decreased, and the market may focus more on the demand side. However, the apple blossoms may be affected by strong winds in the northern region [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term trend of the October contract is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the price trends of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in markets, and 6 - fruit prices [16][17][18]