通胀弱，期待货币宽

Inflation Data Summary - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, matching expectations, and was down from -0.7% the previous month[1] - March CPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, compared to a decrease of 0.2% in the prior month[1] - Core CPI month-on-month remained flat in March, improving from -0.2% the previous month, and was better than the average of -0.1% from 2015-2019[3] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, worse than the expected decline of 2.2%[1] - PPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in February[5] - The rolling three-month average of PPI is at -0.23%, marking a five-month low, with an annual rate of -2.8%[5] Consumer Behavior Insights - Cumulative CPI for January to March was only 0.1%, the second-lowest in recent years, indicating weak consumer demand[1] - Food prices showed a month-on-month decline of 1.4% in March, which is less than the seasonal average decline of 2.1%[2] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables increased slightly by 1.2% in early April, indicating potential stability in food prices[2] Sector Performance - The appliance sector saw a month-on-month retail sales increase of 16.4% in March, supporting core CPI stability[3] - Transportation and travel prices negatively impacted core CPI, with airfares and travel costs dropping by 11.5% and 5.9%, respectively[4] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with a PMI new orders index of only 43.5%, significantly below the average of 52.2% from 2021-2024[6] Policy Implications - The weak inflation data suggests that monetary policy may still have room for adjustment, with potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in April[7] - The report highlights the need for policy support to stimulate demand, as both CPI and PPI are below zero, indicating insufficient demand in the economy[7]