3月通胀数据点评：广义价格继续回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The effect of consumption - promotion policies is gradually emerging, with the year - on - year decline of CPI narrowing, basically in line with market expectations. The overall price level is gradually recovering, and the generalized price index (PCI) continues to rise, indicating an improvement in the overall price level. Policy support is expected to continue, and incremental policies are likely to be introduced to maintain the momentum of price recovery [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. CPI and Core CPI Analysis - In March, CPI decreased month - on - month. Food, energy, and tourism - related items were the main drags. Core CPI was relatively strong, with clothing, household goods and services showing significant increases. The "trade - in" policy supported the demand for household appliances, and service prices also rose, indicating positive signals on the demand side and a mild recovery of the price level from a low position [1][2] 2. PPI Analysis - In March, PPI decreased month - on - month. The decline in international crude oil prices, reduced coal demand after the heating season, and the downward trend of some raw material industries led to the decline in PPI [2] 3. Generalized Price Index (PCI) Analysis - In March, the PCI continued to rise due to the narrowing decline of housing prices and the weakening of the US dollar. The PCI is correlated with the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. The marginal decline of the stock market in April may weaken the upward momentum of the PCI, reducing the pressure on the bond market [3][4] 4. Policy Expectations - Policies aim for a moderate recovery of prices. In the face of the impact of US tariff increases, it is expected that domestic incremental policies will be introduced, with loose monetary policies likely to be implemented first, which will help stabilize the economy and financial markets and continue the price recovery trend [4]