美国通胀系列十三：CPI降温遇关税隐

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The significant decline in the US CPI data in March 2025 has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June, with an expected annual rate cut of up to 100 basis points. However, geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies may push up inflation, forcing the Fed into a dilemma between rate cuts and inflation control, and even delaying the easing cycle [3][26][27]. - The labor market is showing marginal cooling, with strong employment but weakening wage pressure, which provides policy flexibility for the Fed. Asset trends are complex and differentiated, reflecting the market's game between rate - cut expectations and inflation rebound risks [4]. - Although the overall US inflation is cooling, the inflation structure shows that commodity inflation is deflationary while service inflation is sticky. If tariffs are fully implemented, inflation may rebound [17][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 CPI vs Core CPI - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first negative growth since 2020. The core CPI dropped to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a phased relief of overall inflation pressure [10]. - The decline in CPI is mainly due to the fall in energy prices, while the core CPI still shows certain stickiness, especially in service costs and housing rents. Short - term CPI decline may stimulate rate - cut expectations, but there are still risks of inflation rebound [10]. 3.2 Commodity - type Inflation vs Service - type Inflation - In March 2025, the overall US inflation was moderately cooling, but from a structural perspective, commodity prices were almost flat, with a significant decline in energy prices, while service - type CPI still increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Housing - related items were an important source of core CPI stickiness [17]. - Trump's tariff policy adjustment may cause US commodity inflation to rise again in the coming months, while service - type inflation declines more slowly due to structural factors. The current structure of commodity deflation and service inflation still exists, and inflation may face upward risks [17]. 3.3 Impact of Inflation - The decline in the US CPI data in March has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June. However, if tariffs are fully implemented, it may push up inflation and force the Fed into a dilemma [26][27]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies increase the risk of inflation rebound. The Fed may need to carefully balance between "fighting inflation" and "preventing recession", and the policy - turning window is narrowing due to external uncertainties [27].