宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 11 日）-20250411

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and views on coking coal and coke in the black commodity futures sector on April 11, 2025 [1][5][6] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][5] - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][6] Group 4: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Core logic: During the Sino - US trade friction, the US increased import tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and China retaliated. The direct impact on coking coal supply - demand is limited, mainly affecting black terminal exports. The US recently suspended relevant measures for 90 days for non - retaliatory countries, reducing the tariff to 10%. Market sentiment has improved, and black commodities rebounded. However, the long - term loose pattern of coking coal remains unchanged, with high supply and imports, and slow improvement in real estate and infrastructure demand. There is still export pressure from the US and high policy uncertainty, so short - term coking coal will fluctuate widely with market sentiment [5] Coke (J) - Core logic: The US increased tariffs on China but postponed the implementation for over 75 countries for 90 days, reducing the tariff to 10%. There are still re - export channels, and the market atmosphere has slightly eased. Coke futures are oscillating at a low level. Domestically, coking plants proposed a price increase on April 9, but steel mills have not implemented it. There are long - term concerns on the cost and demand sides. Coking coal supply is loose, providing insufficient cost support, and Sino - US trade friction brings export risks. The short - term improvement in fundamentals and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined, and the US tariff policy increases concerns about external demand. It is advisable to monitor domestic policies to boost domestic demand [6]