金融期货日报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy is to expect a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] Core Views Stock Index - US inflation cooled more than expected, with the March CPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the lowest in nearly five years, and the core CPI up 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate in four years. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the tariff issue negotiation with the US. The domestic stock market has been strong recently, but some investors may take profits after consecutive gains due to the impact of the external market. The second - stage competition of the tariff war has begun, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock index futures may operate in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The previous monetary policy was firm. With the increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose money has become more solid. Coupled with the abundant lending by large banks in the past two days, the capital interest rate has steadily declined, and the liquidity has improved. The market is betting on the approaching of loose monetary policy, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen. The certainty of the short - to - medium - term is relatively stronger. Although the long - end lacks the basis for a significant upward movement, it is affected by external tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of negotiations between countries, with significantly increased volatility and more repeated trends. Overall, the long - end interest rate may need the catalysis of the substantial implementation of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.74%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.86%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.33% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.005%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is operating weakly in a volatile manner [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is operating strongly in a volatile manner [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3673.00 | 1.459 | 83748 | 141689 | | 2025/04/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2582.20 | 0.741 | 43873 | 48237 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5509.00 | 1.860 | 60899 | 65270 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5578.20 | 2.334 | 222566 | 174420 | | 2025/04/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.005 | 84854 | 188699 | | 2025/04/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.50 | 0.066 | 69578 | 180190 | | 2025/04/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.87 | - 0.241 | 131204 | 102587 | | 2025/04/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.70 | 0.029 | 43868 | 112006 | [9]