期货市场交易指引-20250411

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short - term [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are all in a state of oscillation. It is advisable to wait and see for rebar and iron ore [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: For copper, consider moderately building long positions after the market panic subsides; for aluminum, strengthen observation; for nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; for tin, conduct range - bound operations; for gold and silver, build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [1][12][18][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol are all in a state of oscillation. Hold short positions in call options for soda ash [1][21][23][25][27] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to weaken in oscillation [1][28][29] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to weaken in oscillation, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are bearish in the far - term, corn is expected to strengthen in oscillation, soybean meal is weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term, and oils are expected to weaken in oscillation [1][32][33][34][36][37] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures products based on factors such as tariff policies, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions. Tariff policies have a significant impact on the market, increasing market volatility and uncertainty. Supply and demand fundamentals also play a crucial role in determining product prices, and different products show different trends due to their own supply - demand characteristics. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors such as US inflation, tariff wars, and external market fluctuations, index futures are expected to oscillate [5] - Treasury Bonds: With increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose monetary policy is strengthening. The short - and medium - term is more certain, while the long - term is more volatile and may require the catalysis of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. The short - term market fluctuates with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] - Iron Ore: Supply is strong, and the growth rate of molten iron is expected to slow down. Affected by foreign tariff policies and domestic policy expectations, it is advisable to wait and see during the roll - over period [7][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance in the short - term, but the upward price resistance is increasing. The coke market is in a stalemate between policy negatives and industrial games, and the price fluctuation intensifies [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The tariff war has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals still have resilience [12] - Aluminum: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is declining. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [14] - Nickel: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tax policies, and supply - demand conditions, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound trading [16][17] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [18] - Gold and Silver: The tariff war has increased market panic, causing price corrections. However, central bank gold purchases, industrial demand, and hedging sentiment support prices. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Caustic Soda: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the later trend is cautiously bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory and alumina production [23] - Rubber: The short - term is affected by tariff policies, and the long - term fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation [23] - Urea: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The price fluctuates widely under the influence of market sentiment and fundamentals [25] - Methanol: The supply is at a high level, and the demand of the main downstream is good, but there are maintenance plans. It is expected to oscillate widely [26] - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing, and although the demand is improving, the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Affected by Trump's tariff policies, the market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] - Apples: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but macro risks need to be paid attention to [29] - PTA: The cost collapses due to factors such as US tariff policies, and although the supply - demand is good, the price is not optimistic [29][30][31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The supply increases in the short - and long - term, and the demand is limited. The price is under pressure, but there is also some support. It is recommended to short on rallies [32][33] - Eggs: The supply pressure is large in the short - term, but it is marginally improved. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near - term and be bearish in the far - term [33] - Corn: The short - term has support, and the long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct positive spreads [34][35] - Soybean Meal: The short - term is under pressure due to abundant supply, and the long - term is expected to strengthen due to factors such as tariff policies and supply - demand changes. It is recommended to be cautious in the near - term and go long in the far - term [36][37] - Oils: Affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand, and reports, the short - term may rebound slightly, and the long - term may first decline and then rebound. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct positive spreads for the price difference [37][38][39][40][41]