工业硅、多晶硅日评：工业硅低位整理，多晶硅重心或有下移-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its low - level consolidation in the short term, with prices ranging from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. The price center of polysilicon may shift downward [1]. - For industrial silicon, although the supply has decreased after some capacity reduction in northern large - scale plants, the demand has not improved significantly, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains. For polysilicon, the self - disciplined production cuts and the rush - installation tide still support the price, but the subsequent demand may weaken [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - Industrial Silicon Spot Prices: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The average prices of other regions also remained stable [1]. - Industrial Silicon Futures Price: The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.47% to 9,555 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon Spot Prices: N - type dense material remained at 40 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feeding material remained at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained at 33.5 yuan/kg [1]. - Polysilicon Futures Price: The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.13% to 42,190 yuan/ton [1]. Company News - Daquan Energy: The current industry inventory is about 400,000 tons. The company's inventory is less than two - month production. In Q4 2024, the company's polysilicon production was 34,000 tons and sales were 42,000 tons; the annual production was 205,000 tons and sales were 181,000 tons. It is expected that the Q1 2025 production will be 25,000 - 28,000 tons, and the annual production guidance is 110,000 - 140,000 tons [1]. - GCL Technology: In Q1, the EBITDA of the photovoltaic materials business reached 505 million yuan. The average cash cost of granular silicon in Q1 decreased from 27.14 yuan/kg in January - February to 27.07 yuan/kg [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial Silicon: Due to the limited change in overall supply and the decline in demand, the silicon price is expected to remain low in the short term. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon: Move the stop - profit point of long positions down to around 43,500 yuan/ton. Long positions established earlier can take profits on rallies. Consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread for inter - period strategies [1].