申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue to decline, but also pay attention to the room for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3] - For methanol, the short - term trend is mainly bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 458.1, 457.6, 58.23, 57.79, 65.72, and 65.14 respectively. The price changes were - 20.5, - 21.1, - 2.73, - 2.89, 4.10, and 3.94, with percentage changes of - 4.28%, - 4.41%, - 4.48%, - 4.76%, 6.65%, and 6.44% [2] - The trading volumes were 217,278, 91,670, 531,215, 470,571, 667,298, and 415,905 respectively. The open interests were 19,038, 20,105, 258,227, 269,274, 497,797, and 413,637 respectively, with changes of - 559, 4,964, - 25,261, 18,598, - 37,761, and 5,623 [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 0.5, 457.6, 33.5, - 21.1, 3.23, and 0.58 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2,388, 2,426, and 2,317 respectively. The price changes were 81.0, 74.0, and 88.0, with percentage changes of 3.51%, 3.15%, and 3.95% [2] - The trading volumes were 12,527, 835,075, and 533,458 respectively. The open interests were 28,077, 447,218, and 469,938 respectively, with changes of 4,985, - 48,648, and 2,445 [2] Spot Market Methanol - The current prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 267.5, 2,570, 2,275, and 2,525 respectively, with changes of 5, 45, - 10, and 40 [2] Crude Oil - The international market prices of OPEC basket, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 63.40, 62.80, 62.35, 62.22, 62.03, and 59.04 respectively [2] - The domestic market prices of Daqing, Shengli, China gasoline wholesale price index, China diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 58.34, 57.97, 8,208, 6,997, 55.42, and 5,662 respectively [2] Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth, the US stock market fell sharply, and the CBOE market volatility index remained high. The US Energy Information Administration predicted that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 would be about $67.87 per barrel, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $74.22 [3] Methanol - The methanol night - session rose 0.17%. The arrival of downstream factories increased, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas increased slightly. As of April 10, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 73.36 tons, up 1.16 tons from April 3, a 1.61% increase and a 10.32% year - on - year increase. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was about 31.3 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported ships from April 11 to April 27 was between 52.35 - 53 tons. As of April 10, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 74%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The average operating rate of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.21%, a 0.86% increase from the previous period [3]