摩根大通：经济简报-只是关税开端的结束

Investment Rating - The report maintains a 60% probability of a US/global recession, with a 40% chance of avoiding it, contingent on potential tariff adjustments by the Trump administration [2][3]. Core Insights - The recent tariff adjustments, particularly the 10% universal tariffs and the 125% tariffs on China, represent a significant economic shock, estimated to impose an $860 billion tax burden, approximately 2.5% of GDP [2]. - The report indicates that the US imports about $450 billion from China, which constitutes 13% of total imports and 1.5% of GDP, highlighting the potential ripple effects on supply chains if trade with China is disrupted [2]. - The ongoing trade policy chaos and substantial losses in equity markets contribute to a challenging economic outlook, with the US likely facing recessionary pressures [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay its first interest rate cut to September, with a terminal rate projected at 3% by the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the reactions of major trading partners, including China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, to the new tariffs, which will significantly influence the evolution of the trade war [2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The report outlines that the effective US average tariff rate has increased to approximately 27%, which could reduce US GDP by 2.8 percentage points and global GDP by 1.4 percentage points [15][28]. - The direct impact of the tariff hike accounts for only 30% of the global growth hit, with trade policy uncertainty being the dominant factor [15][28]. Country-Specific Impacts - Vietnam is projected to experience the most severe GDP contraction at 13%, followed by Taiwan and Thailand at -4.3% each, due to their high export dependence on the US market [22][23]. - Mexico and Canada, while exposed, were spared further tariff hikes, resulting in comparatively lower direct trade impacts, although business sentiment has already been significantly affected [23]. Global Growth Forecasts - The report has downgraded global growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.3% from an earlier estimate of 2.1%, reflecting the adverse effects of the tariff shock [13][28]. - The analysis indicates that emerging markets in Asia are particularly vulnerable to growth risks stemming from US tariff measures, with significant downward revisions expected [22][28].