高盛：中美关税博弈2.0，下调中国GDP增长预测至4.0%！

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision of real GDP growth forecasts for China to 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs and a slowing global economy [1][10][11] Core Insights - The US has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, significantly affecting the Chinese economy and labor market, with expectations of further policy easing from the Chinese government [1][2][11] - The report anticipates a substantial reduction in Chinese real GDP, estimating a 2.6 percentage point decrease due to the increased US tariffs, with a projected impact of 2.2 percentage points in 2025 [4][9] - The Chinese government is expected to implement expanded monetary and fiscal easing measures, including a total of 60 basis points in policy rate cuts and an increase in the augmented fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP [10][18] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese goods has escalated from 11% to 125%, which is expected to exert significant pressure on the Chinese economy [4][13] - The rapid escalation of tariffs has led to a reassessment of growth forecasts, with the report highlighting the challenges in achieving the previously projected 4.5% GDP growth for this year [3][11] Policy Easing Measures - The report outlines a series of forecast revisions, including an increase in policy easing assumptions and a rise in the augmented fiscal deficit estimate [10][18] - Expectations for faster credit growth and relaxed property policies are also noted as part of the government's strategy to mitigate the tariff impact [10][18] Growth Forecasts - The revised growth forecasts indicate a significant slowdown, with 2025 and 2026 real GDP growth now projected at 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively, down from previous estimates [10][21] - The report suggests that achieving the official target of "around 5%" real GDP growth for this year may be challenging, with alternative measures potentially falling below this level [11][21]