股指日报：反弹力度偏弱，短期预计震荡，单边建议顺势日平-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the sharp decline of the index on Monday, there are still "aftershocks" in the sentiment, combined with continuous international fluctuations and strengthening technical pressure. The short - term trend is expected to turn to weak sideways movement, and there is a possibility of a second bottom - testing. It is recommended that investors continue to be defensive this week. In the medium term, the underlying logic of the starting point of the A - share bull market has not changed. After the short - term pessimistic expectations reach the extreme, the impact of external factors such as subsequent tariffs tends to be the exhaustion of negative factors. Referring to the market from H2 2019 to H1 2020, wait for the opportunity of a second upward attack after the sharp decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 73.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 21.5% [4] - The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly down from the 2.8% level of the previous month, hitting a six - month low and lower than the market forecast of 2.6%. The CPI in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, far lower than the market forecast (an increase of 0.1%), with the previous value being an increase of 0.2% [4] Stock Index Disk Review - Disk Tracking: In the previous trading day, the A - shares continued to rebound. The four major indexes opened higher and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed up 0.60%, the CSI 300 Index closed up 1.31%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 1.92%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 2.34%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+6.22%) and precious metals (+5.30%) led the gains yesterday, while telecommunications (-1.12%) and soft drinks (-0.96%) lagged. More than 4,900 stocks rose, and the number of daily limit stocks was 178, with the profit - making effect warming up [4] - Technical Tracking: Affected by the spill - over of external market risks, the indexes gapped down collectively this week. The technical indicators quickly turned bearish, the short - term rebound strength was weak, and the pressure at the daily and weekly levels strengthened [4] - Fund Flow: The trading volume of A - shares increased slightly, rising to the level of 1.6 - 1.7 trillion this week. The willingness of funds to bottom - fish was acceptable, but it was hard to say that the market had stabilized. It is expected that the divergence will continue today [4] Core Logic Summary - Short - term Outlook: Due to post - decline sentiment "aftershocks", international fluctuations, and strengthening technical pressure, the short - term trend is expected to be weakly sideways, with a possible second bottom - testing. Investors are advised to be defensive this week [3] - Medium - term Outlook: The underlying logic of the A - share bull market remains unchanged. After short - term pessimism, external factors may turn from negative to positive. Refer to the 2019H2 - 2020H1 market and wait for the second upward attack opportunity after the sharp decline [3] - Key Factors to Watch: Whether the Fed will make a compromise rate cut after the uncertainty of the US economic outlook; whether the intensity of domestic policies will increase after the earnings window at the end of April [3] Operation Suggestions - Futures Operations: The discounts of stock index futures contracts generally widened, especially for IF and IH. There is room for correction. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - IF and short - IM portfolio; for single - side operations, stay on the sidelines or close positions on the same day according to the trend [3] - Options Operations: The implied volatility of stock index options continued to decline. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of the CSI 300 Index in the current month reached the 20 - 21% level. The short - term volatility is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with few certain operation opportunities. You can participate in short - term put option buying or hold the current - month written options until maturity, but risk control should be set in advance [3]