化工日报：对等关税暂缓，聚酯产业链反弹-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On April 10, the polyester industry chain rebounded across the board, with the main contracts of PX/PTA/PF/PR rising by 5.31%, 4.97%, 5.41%, and 4.11% respectively. The main reason was that Trump halted the reciprocal tariffs that took effect on April 9 and implemented a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on countries that did not take retaliatory actions for trade negotiations [1]. - The compromise on tariff issues led to a significant rebound in risk assets on Wednesday night, with oil prices rebounding about 10% from the low, driving the overall rebound of downstream energy - chemical products. Although direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, indirect orders from Southeast Asia resumed shipping on Thursday, and the 90 - day buffer period might increase subsequent rush - export and re - export orders, partially offsetting the negative impact of high tariffs on China [1]. - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs offset some negative demand impacts, but direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, and the demand expectation for textiles and clothing was still weak. Attention should be paid to further changes in trade policies [1]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [9][10][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][69][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, be cautious about short - selling PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging. Although the US relaxed the intensity of reciprocal tariffs on other countries, the China - US trade war might further escalate, and the US might threaten other countries to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and semi - finished products. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations in traditional re - export countries such as Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. In the medium term, trade protection would bring uncertainty to global economic growth, and there was a risk of further decline in oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a light position and be cautious [4][5] - Cross - variety: Go long on MEG and short on PTA - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided