尿素日报：市场情绪好转，尿素期现反弹-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, driving the rebound of urea futures and spot prices. Urea daily production is at a high level, increasing market supply. Agricultural demand is scattered, with fertilizer - preparation expectations in Northeast China and for southern rice. The domestic export policy remains tight, the export window is temporarily closed, and the export volume remains low. It is recommended to continuously monitor export - related policies. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,865 yuan/ton (+35). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,900 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1,910 yuan/ton (+10). The Shandong basis was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the Henan basis was 35 yuan/ton (-15), and the Jiangsu basis was 45 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of April 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.41% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of April 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 304 yuan/ton (+10). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 48.89% (-3.48%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.63% (+4.45%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of April 10, 2025, the export profit was - 64 yuan/ton (+3). With the rise of domestic urea prices and a slight decline in international urea prices, the price difference between the domestic and international markets has decreased, and the export window is temporarily closed [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of April 10, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 5.82 days (-0.83) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]