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盘面跟随原油反弹,基本面驱动有限
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-11 05:05

Group 1: Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core View - On April 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2506 was 3240 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.84% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 177,622 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and the trading volume was 386,207 lots, a decrease of 69,170 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3690 - 4056 yuan/ton, Shandong 3300 - 3550 yuan/ton, South China 3330 - 3600 yuan/ton, and East China 3540 - 3720 yuan/ton [1] - Due to Trump's authorization to suspend tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days, risk assets that had fallen sharply due to tariff concerns rebounded. The Brent crude oil price rose to around $65/barrel, driving up the futures prices of downstream energy and chemical products including asphalt. Currently, the asphalt market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious overall contradictions. Local spot prices have declined, and the basis has narrowed. The current market drive mainly comes from the macro and crude oil aspects, and it may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Futures market: The main asphalt futures contract BU2506 showed price increase, decreased open interest, and decreased trading volume on April 10 [1] - Spot market: Different regions have different ranges of heavy - traffic asphalt spot settlement prices [1] - Market drive: The price increase is mainly due to the rebound of risk assets and crude oil, while the asphalt's own fundamentals are weak in supply and demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - There are figures showing various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, near - month), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, from independent refineries, in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]