兼评美国3月CPI：怎么看美国股债汇“三杀”？

Group 1: Macro Overview - The U.S. March CPI and core CPI both fell below expectations, with the overall CPI at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and previous 2.8%[2] - Core CPI dropped to 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% and previous 3.1%, marking the first time it fell below 3% since April 2021[2] - Following the CPI release, the market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 50% probability of four cuts and a 100% probability of a cut in June[4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Post-CPI release, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 3.5%, Nasdaq down 4.3%, and Dow Jones down 2.5%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.0 basis points to 4.42%[4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 2.0% to 100.9, while spot gold increased by 3.0% to $3175.0 per ounce[4] Group 3: Inflation Components - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices fell sharply by -2.4%[3] - Core goods prices decreased by -0.1%, with notable declines in used car and healthcare product prices[3] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was -0.04%, down from 0.08% in February[3] Group 4: Economic Concerns - Short-term market concerns center around a liquidity crisis, with current conditions resembling those during the 2020 pandemic[5] - Long-term concerns focus on potential global economic recession due to tariffs, with significant uncertainty regarding their impact on GDP[5] - The next few months are critical for observing economic data and tariff negotiations, with high volatility expected in asset prices[5]