Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. The output of rebar continues to rise, inventory declines for the sixth consecutive week with a narrowing decline, and apparent demand rebounds slightly. The market is currently focused on the new round of global trade wars, weakening the impact of fundamental factors [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The shipping volume from Australia has declined, while that from Brazil has continued to rise, and the global shipping volume has decreased. The demand for iron ore has increased, and the inventory at ports has decreased. The price is also significantly affected by overseas macro - news [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious. Although the coke enterprises' operating rate is high, the profit of coke enterprises is being compressed, and the price increase of coke has been temporarily shelved [1]. - The coke market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline. The demand from steel mills is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to trade sideways. The supply is gradually decreasing, but the improvement in terminal demand still takes time. The price of manganese ore is weakening, and the cost support is limited. Market sentiment has a significant impact [3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, which provides support for the price, but the demand from steel mills is limited. Market sentiment is the dominant factor [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 749 lots in positions. The spot price rebounded, and the trading volume increased. This week, the national rebar output increased by 3.72 tons week - on - week to 232.37 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.1 tons, and factory inventory increased by 7.54 tons to 214.66 tons. Apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 2.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 600,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The spot price at ports increased. The shipping volume from Australia decreased, while that from Brazil increased, and the global shipping volume decreased. The number of blast furnaces in production increased, iron - making output increased by 1.49 tons to 240.22 tons, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 2.46 tons. The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 112.39 tons to 14,831.02 tons [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2505 closed at 913 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9,842 lots in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was stable. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2505 closed at 1550.5 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 1.77% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,812 lots in positions. The spot price at ports was stable. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5966 yuan/ton, up 1.53% month - on - month, with a decrease of 22,561 lots in positions to 292,600 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 - 5900 yuan/ton. The supply is gradually decreasing, and the price of manganese ore is weakening [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.65% month - on - month, with an increase of 3,601 lots in positions. The market price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was about 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand from steel mills is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 3.0; the 5 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 20.0, down 2.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 47.5, up 4.5; the 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 37.5, up 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 97.5, down 9.5; the 5 - 9 spread of manganese silicon was - 90.0, down 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of ferrosilicon was 6.0, down 12.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of rebar 05 contract was 109.0, down 8.0; the basis of hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 45.0, down 5.0; the basis of iron ore 05 contract was 52.6, down 0.5; the basis of coke 05 contract was - 69.8, down 27.0; the basis of coking coal 05 contract was 257.0, up 4.0; the basis of manganese silicon 05 contract was - 166.0, down 2.0; the basis of ferrosilicon 05 contract was - 224.0, unchanged [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3170.0, up 40.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280.0, up 40.0; the spot price of PB powder was 761.0, up 20.0; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1330.0, unchanged; the spot price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1250.0, unchanged; the spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5650.0, up 50.0; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5600.0, unchanged [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar futures profit was 154.2, up 7.8; the long - process profit was 17.2, up 4.1; the short - process profit was - 56.8, up 51.1; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 116.0, down 4.0; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.4, down 0.04; the rebar - coke ratio was 2.0, unchanged; the coking coal - iron ore ratio was 1.7, up 0.04; the coke - iron ore ratio was 2.2, down 0.02; the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread was 22.0, down 22.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of 05 - 10, 10 - 01, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][33][36][37][40][41]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, and manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread [43][45][47]. - Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [48][52]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal research [54]. - Liu Xi, a master of science, is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, specializing in fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].
黑色商品日报-20250411
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-04-11 05:10