申银万国期货首席点评：提振消费政策效应逐渐显现

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy effect of boosting consumption is gradually emerging. In March, the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI rebounded significantly, showing positive price changes [1][7]. - Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][13]. - Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about the future of Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - For A - shares, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on policies to boost the domestic economy [4][5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the EU agreed to suspend counter - measures against US tariffs for 90 days, and preparations for further counter - measures are ongoing [6]. Domestic News - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI rose by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes [1][7]. Industry News - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up, help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market, and carry out activities such as the "China Tour of High - quality Foreign - trade Products" [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, the European STOXX 50 rose by 3.50%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.61%, the US dollar index fell by 1.97%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 3.53%, London gold rose by 3.02%, London silver rose by 0.78%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: After a sharp drop in US stocks and a slight decline in A50, the stock index rebounded significantly. The "stabilizing the market" combination of policies since April 7 has boosted market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on domestic economic - boosting policies [4][5][11]. - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined. The central bank's net cash withdrawal, the slowdown of US inflation, and the possibility of the central bank's policy adjustment are factors affecting Treasury bonds. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices are expected to be supported, while long - term prices may fluctuate more [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC rose slightly at night. The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth. Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - Methanol: Similar to crude oil, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the reduction of global oil demand forecast, short - term bearish on oil prices [14]. - Rubber: The market is still concerned about tariffs. The demand outlook is poor, but the supply side has some support. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the rubber price is expected to be weak [16]. - Polyolefins: Affected by US tariffs and the increase in crude oil supply, the international oil price decline dragged down polyolefins. Pay attention to cost and demand changes [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures declined, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. Soda ash futures were in a narrow - range consolidation, with weak supply - demand fundamentals [18]. - PTA: The PTA futures price is weak due to insufficient demand and cost support [19]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol futures price is under pressure due to rising inventory and limited improvement in downstream orders [20]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - Copper: The copper price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and inventory [22]. - Zinc: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and smelting output [23]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to tariff uncertainties [24]. - Nickel: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertainty of nickel ore supply and other factors [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, demand increased, and inventory increased. The lithium price may decline further if production is not adjusted [26]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The impact of tariffs on black commodities is limited. Iron ore demand has support, but there is medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [27]. - Steel: The direct impact of tariffs on steel is limited, but emotions may suppress the price. Pay attention to the resumption of production by steel mills and demand recovery [28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. Pay attention to the digestion of upstream inventory and the performance of terminal demand [29]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by cost and demand. Pay attention to steel procurement and inventory digestion [30][31]. Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The night - trading prices of soybean and palm oil were strongly volatile. The March palm oil supply - demand report in Malaysia had a neutral impact, and the rise in oil prices will boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - Protein Meal: The night - trading prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weakly volatile. The far - month soybean meal price has support due to possible changes in US soybean planting area and import volume [33]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the market risk preference rebounded. The traditional peak season of the European line is uncertain, and it is necessary to pay attention to shipping company's capacity control and price increases [34].