2025年3月通胀数据点评：应对新一轮关税冲击，逆周期政策组合拳正当时

Group 1: Inflation Data - In March, the CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, narrowing the drop by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value, aligning with market expectations[9] - The core CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year in March, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the cumulative year-on-year growth remained flat at 0.3%[14] - Energy prices were a major drag on the CPI, with transportation fuel prices falling by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Economic Outlook - The PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year in March, exceeding market expectations of a 2.3% decline, with a month-on-month drop of 0.4%[17] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors and oil price fluctuations, with mining industry prices dropping by 8.3%[21] - The upcoming tariff impacts in April are expected to exert significant downward pressure on domestic prices, necessitating timely counter-cyclical policy measures[8] Group 3: Tariff Implications - As of April 2, the average tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports was 42.1%, with potential increases leading to tariffs as high as 167.1% on Chinese goods[29] - The trade conflict is projected to raise import prices and reduce export volumes, contributing to both input inflation and increased endogenous deflation risks in China[30] - If trade volumes decrease by 10% due to tariffs, it could result in an estimated loss of approximately 2 trillion yuan for the Chinese economy[30]