华泰证券-宏观动态点评：美国三月CPI，关税冲击前的平静？

Inflation Data Summary - The overall CPI for March in the U.S. was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month change of -0.05% compared to February's 0.22%[1] - Core CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year core CPI was reported at 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.0%[1] Market Reactions - Despite the significant cooling of inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing tariff impacts, with little change in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[3] - Long-term yields continued to rise, and U.S. stock markets experienced a decline after opening[1] Tariff Impact - Tariffs remain a core variable influencing market and Federal Reserve decisions, with uncertainty surrounding their effects on growth and inflation data[3] - The Richmond Fed President indicated that the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation may not be fully realized until June[3] Core CPI Components - Most components of core CPI showed a cooling trend, particularly in volatile categories like school accommodations and transportation services, which contributed significantly to the inflation decline[1] - The core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%, indicating a negative growth trend[6] Specific Item Changes - Energy prices saw a significant month-on-month decline of 2.39%, while food prices increased by 0.44%[7] - The core goods category turned negative with a month-on-month change of -0.09%, reflecting a slowdown in previously rising furniture and clothing prices[6]