关税互制下的铜企业应对策略

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The mutual tariff measures between the US and China have increased inflation and recession expectations in the US, led to a significant decline in the US dollar index, and heightened the expectation of a global economic slowdown, causing large fluctuations in copper prices [2][3]. - These tariff policies have a substantial impact on domestic copper enterprises in terms of costs, profits, and market demand, and enterprises need to actively respond [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact Analysis of Mutual Tariff Measures on Copper Enterprises - Cost Aspect - Raw material cost fluctuations: US tariff hikes on copper products or semi - finished products may affect global copper trade flows, causing shortages and price fluctuations in other regions, and increasing the raw material procurement costs of Chinese copper processing enterprises. Further tariff hikes on copper concentrates may raise international prices and increase import costs for Chinese enterprises [4]. - Increased transportation and logistics costs: Higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainties may lead to changes in transportation routes, longer transportation times, and more complex logistics, increasing the transportation and logistics costs of copper processing enterprises [4]. - Market Demand Aspect - Shrinking international market demand: US tariff increases will make Chinese copper products less competitive in the US market, leading to reduced orders and a weakened global demand for copper products due to the expected global economic recession [5]. - Intensified domestic market competition: With export difficulties, some copper processing enterprises may turn to the domestic market, intensifying competition and compressing profit margins [5]. - Enterprise Profit Aspect - Short - term profit decline: Under the dual pressure of rising costs and shrinking market demand, the short - term profits of copper processing enterprises may be significantly affected, and there may be a decline in gross and net profit margins or even losses [6]. How Copper Enterprises Can Absorb and Respond to the Adverse Effects of Mutual Tariff Measures - Promote technological upgrading and product structure optimization: Copper processing enterprises will increase R & D investment to develop high - value - added and high - performance copper alloy materials and products to enhance competitiveness [7]. - Accelerate industrial chain integration and layout adjustment: Some enterprises may integrate the industrial chain, strengthen cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises, and consider setting up overseas production bases to bypass US tariff barriers [8]. Impact Analysis of Mutual Tariff Measures on Copper Prices - The US tariff policy exacerbates global trade tensions, increasing the possibility of economic stagnation or recession, which will weaken global demand for copper and put pressure on copper prices. However, China may adopt active fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand, which will support copper prices [9]. How Copper Enterprises Can Respond to the Risk of Sharp Price Declines - Upstream enterprises in the copper industry chain can use derivatives to lock in inventory value in the short term, such as selling futures and buying put options [10]. - Downstream enterprises can adjust the hedging ratio moderately on the basis of normal raw material price locking and replenish the hedging volume after the risk of global recession eases [10]. - The important support levels for copper prices are around 7850 - 8100 for LME copper and 68000 - 70500 for SHFE copper main contract [10].