3月通胀数据点评：非能源通胀企稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2025 inflation data, the year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved compared to the previous month. Energy price inflation in March was affected by trade friction uncertainties and is expected to face pressure in April [3][6]. - Upstream prices showed a stabilizing trend, reflecting improved domestic demand. Stable domestic demand gives China more leverage in external negotiations [3][12]. - Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are still somewhat restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may mainly depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity [3][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On April 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released March 2025 inflation data. In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices down 1.4% and non - food prices up 0.2%. The CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [5]. Comment - Core and food CPI: The year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved in March. The core CPI was flat month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The rent - related CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.1%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in March was about 291,000 square meters, higher than that in March 2024 [6]. - Food CPI: After the Spring Festival, the food CPI decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline converged. In March, the food CPI decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline also narrowed to 1.4% [9]. - Energy price inflation: Affected by trade friction uncertainties, international oil prices in March decreased compared to February, driving down domestic oil prices. In April, energy inflation is expected to continue facing pressure due to increased trade friction risks and OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in May [12]. - Upstream prices: The price indices of edible agricultural products and production materials showed signs of stabilization at the end of March, reflecting improved domestic demand. China's counter - tariffs on the US may affect the prices of imported products such as agricultural products, but the sources of agricultural product imports have become more diversified [12]. - Monetary policy: Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity. If the savings propensity can drive down the bank's liability cost, the logic of policy rate cuts is more reasonable [15].