美国3月CPI点评：通胀超预期下行或难影响美联储降息决策

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, both falling more than market expectations[2][12]. - Energy inflation continued to decline, with energy prices dropping by 3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from February, while food prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from February[3][17]. Economic Outlook - The March CPI data indicates a significant decline in inflation, particularly in core services, suggesting a slowdown in US economic activity[4][30]. - The implementation of Trump's tariff policies is expected to increase price pressures in the future, leading to heightened uncertainty regarding the direction of inflation[4][30]. Federal Reserve Implications - Despite the unexpected decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach due to the ongoing effects of tariff policies and the current inflation levels not meeting their target[5][37]. - The Fed may consider 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, with the next potential cut possibly occurring in June or later, depending on the progress of tariff negotiations[6][40]. Market Impact - The US stock market may still face downward pressure, as the overall tariff rates remain significantly higher than the average rate of 2.3% in 2024, potentially leading to continued economic weakness[5][40]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions suggests that the market may not recover quickly, and further declines could occur[5][39].