半导体行业双周报（2025、03、28-2025、04、10）：贸易摩擦有望强化自主可控逻辑-20250411

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [4][46]. Core Insights - Recent trade frictions are expected to strengthen the logic of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor sector, accelerating the domestic substitution of high-end chips, RF modules, and semiconductor equipment and materials [4][38]. - The semiconductor industry index has seen a decline of 6.27% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [6][13]. - Gartner predicts that global spending on Generative AI will reach $644 billion in 2025, a 76.4% increase from 2024, with hardware being a major driver of this growth [19]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment and materials, analog chips, RF modules, domestic computing power, and storage sectors due to ongoing trade tensions [4][38]. Industry Performance Review - The semiconductor industry index has experienced a cumulative decline of 0.93% since the beginning of 2025, while outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.15 percentage points [6][13]. - Various sub-sectors within the semiconductor industry have shown declines, with the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector down by 11.66% over the past two weeks [14][17]. Company Announcements and Dynamics - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$285.96 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 46.5% [21]. - Longji Technology expects a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter [26]. - Zhaosheng Microelectronics announced a 64.2% decline in net profit for 2024 but plans to distribute dividends [23]. Semiconductor Industry Data Updates - Global smartphone shipments reached 332 million units in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.38% [30]. - In February 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 892,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.1% [32]. - Global semiconductor sales in February 2025 amounted to $54.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment and materials, analog chips, RF modules, and domestic computing power due to the acceleration of domestic substitution processes driven by trade tensions [38]. - Specific companies to watch include Shengbang Co., North Huachuang, and Zhongwei Company, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [41][42].