美国3月CPI数据点评：通胀回落，近忧可缓远虑未消

Group 1: CPI Overview - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and below the market expectation of 2.5%[6] - The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3.1% previously and lower than the expected 3.0%[6] Group 2: Inflation Components - Food CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by positive growth in dairy products and non-alcoholic beverages, contributing 0.06 percentage points to the overall CPI[9] - Energy CPI decreased by 6.1% month-on-month, primarily due to falling crude oil prices, contributing -0.14 percentage points to the overall CPI[9] Group 3: Core Inflation Trends - The core goods CPI fell to -0.1% month-on-month, with used car prices decreasing by 0.7% and clothing CPI rising slightly by 0.4%[9] - Housing inflation showed signs of easing, with core services CPI rising by only 0.1% month-on-month, mainly driven by housing services contributing 0.07 percentage points to the CPI[9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite the recent decline in inflation, concerns about potential secondary inflation risks remain due to the impact of tariffs on the US economy[9] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that monetary policy adjustments would depend on clearer economic conditions, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future inflation trends[9]